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Selling More Longs

Things Are Getting Stretched

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#1 MikeyG

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Posted 13 June 2023 - 12:21 PM

Very little of longs remaining now. 

 

Either bonds need to go up or stocks need to go down. 

 

If bonds go up, then stocks can continue their rally. 

 

Market risk premium is the lowest in a long while around 1.4%, whoa! 

 

Bonds need to rally for this to continue. 

 


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#2 steadyquest

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Posted 14 June 2023 - 12:19 AM

I wonder if this chart is suggesting anything in regard to bond and stock pricing.

 

tlt-spy.png



#3 steadyquest

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Posted 14 June 2023 - 12:59 PM

tlt-qqq.png



#4 steadyquest

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Posted 14 June 2023 - 02:53 PM

RSI topped-out just a hair under 90.  Panic-buying of tsla - will the insanity never end?

 

tsla.png



#5 MikeyG

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 09:04 AM

And there go the bonds!!! 

 

Need a sizeable move here in bonds to sustain the overall rally! 

 

I would like to see at least 106 in TLT to keep the overall stock rally going! 


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#6 K Wave

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 10:52 AM

Until the put buyers show up, this thing can keep levitating....

Once they finally do, with P/C where it's at, could see a sharp pull back.

But certainly not acting like a bear market since the key day on march 16th in the Naz.

And now other indexes starting to improve as well.

Edited by K Wave, 15 June 2023 - 10:54 AM.

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#7 K Wave

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 12:09 PM

Failure by Apple to hold above 184 mini breakout, could be first sign of exhaustion.....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 steadyquest

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 12:32 PM

The dow appears to be lagging hugely.  If tlt goes up a few percent the dow could see another 25+ percent of upside.

 

tlt-dia.png



#9 steadyquest

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 03:34 PM

Looks like the dow train is leaving the station, but my target is only about 13% higher.  Based on the 3.5 line of the above chart, that would put tlt at 89.7.  Is it possible the boys haven't finished screwing with the bond crowd?

dia2.png

 

tlt-dwn.png



#10 steadyquest

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 03:48 PM

I miss-calculated - - - 396.76 is 15% higher than 344.83 (the last price), but the 89.7 result is not affected by that calculation.