104 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

".....This equity market has shown that it is capable of recapturing an important technical level, and if it's capable of doing that, then it "unlocks" the potential for more gains in the bigger picture. I still think the odds favor getting some sort of retracement soon (it may have started), but in the interim, I'm content with adding stocks that show potential on both the technical and fundamental front and are not overextended.

My primary concern in the bigger picture has been that a reversal around that 4200-4400 region followed by heavy selling would represent a major top that would take us back down to the lower end of the trading range. If this is truly the beginning of a new BULL trend there will be an abundance of opportunity offered. However, there is also this fact to consider. While we've seen new highs and a BEAR market low, the S&P is trading at the same level it was in June '21. That is two years of zero performance, leaving an investor to contemplate the no-risk returns that are being offered today.

Short-term trading requires discipline, flexibility, risk management, and an open mind. Long-term investing requires patience, flexibility, and humility. Practiced together they make for the "perfect investor".

When we stumble and make mistakes, don't be discouraged, the "perfect investor" is yet to be found..."

https://seekingalpha...change-rolls-on

[dTraderB]

"...There is little need to re-hash all of the stats, graphics, and charts that tell us how overbought and extended the equity indices have become. We've covered them all. While we spoke about the possibility of a rally that could take the S&P up to the 4300 range not many expected what has occurred this month.

Once the S&P pushed higher, and took out the August highs (4305) the stampede was on. That kicked off "short" covering, and turned the BUY program switch ON, which kicked in more algorithmic and FOMO buying. As the S&P 500 was nearing the top of the 4200-4400 region I (along with many others) have been eyeing for months, it sure appeared to be the perfect setup for a pullback. We saw the first bout of MILD weakness enter the scene this week.

So what happens now? The S&P did push to 4448 on an intraday basis and some started to suggest the indices were about to board Ozzy Osbourne's "Crazy Train" and eventually go off the rails. It did feel like typical "Blow-Off" price action and now we've seen the S&P reverse and close below 4400. Normally I'd stick my neck out and proclaim that was the intermediate top, but with this momentum and euphoria, any short-term analysis now is simply guessing.

With the S&P very extended and just beyond the limits of what I thought probable, we are sort of flying blind at the moment. So far, any intraday dips look "corrective" rather than impulsive to the downside. Intraday support has held as well. That infers the BULLS can revisit the scene and make another run at higher highs despite what remains an overbought scene. It is worth noting the divergences that are still present..."

".....This equity market has shown that it is capable of recapturing an important technical level, and if it's capable of doing that, then it "unlocks" the potential for more gains in the bigger picture. I still think the odds favor getting some sort of retracement soon (it may have started), but in the interim, I'm content with adding stocks that show potential on both the technical and fundamental front and are not overextended.

My primary concern in the bigger picture has been that a reversal around that 4200-4400 region followed by heavy selling would represent a major top that would take us back down to the lower end of the trading range. If this is truly the beginning of a new BULL trend there will be an abundance of opportunity offered. However, there is also this fact to consider. While we've seen new highs and a BEAR market low, the S&P is trading at the same level it was in June '21. That is two years of zero performance, leaving an investor to contemplate the no-risk returns that are being offered today.

Short-term trading requires discipline, flexibility, risk management, and an open mind. Long-term investing requires patience, flexibility, and humility. Practiced together they make for the "perfect investor".

When we stumble and make mistakes, don't be discouraged, the "perfect investor" is yet to be found..."

https://seekingalpha...change-rolls-on

[dTraderB]

A better week but still down in JUNE.
JUNE may be a 2023 record volume of trades for me. One reason is higher volume in HANG SENG & CHINESE/JAPANESE markets, also shorter time-frame as markwts mprph into a new mode: could be 0DTE & similar instruments, or simply more newbies thrashing away in VST & ST trading.

My FF is a HUGE JULY RALLY. So, I plan to transform current NET SHORT ACCOUNT position to LONG. Definitely, I will buy more FINANCIALS, SEPTEMBER & LATER OPTIONS, and more trading in ASIAN, EU, LATAM markets.

https://www.morganst...t-asia-equities

https://www.morganst...t-asia-equities

[dTraderB]

https://www.blackroc...arterly-outlook

A better week but still down in JUNE.
JUNE may be a 2023 record volume of trades for me. One reason is higher volume in HANG SENG & CHINESE/JAPANESE markets, also shorter time-frame as markwts mprph into a new mode: could be 0DTE & similar instruments, or simply more newbies thrashing away in VST & ST trading.

My FF is a HUGE JULY RALLY. So, I plan to transform current NET SHORT ACCOUNT position to LONG. Definitely, I will buy more FINANCIALS, SEPTEMBER & LATER OPTIONS, and more trading in ASIAN, EU, LATAM markets.

https://www.morganst...t-asia-equities

https://www.morganst...t-asia-equities

[dTraderB]

https://www.jpmorgan...-getting-better

https://www.blackroc...arterly-outlook

A better week but still down in JUNE.
JUNE may be a 2023 record volume of trades for me. One reason is higher volume in HANG SENG & CHINESE/JAPANESE markets, also shorter time-frame as markwts mprph into a new mode: could be 0DTE & similar instruments, or simply more newbies thrashing away in VST & ST trading.

My FF is a HUGE JULY RALLY. So, I plan to transform current NET SHORT ACCOUNT position to LONG. Definitely, I will buy more FINANCIALS, SEPTEMBER & LATER OPTIONS, and more trading in ASIAN, EU, LATAM markets.

https://www.morganst...t-asia-equities

https://www.morganst...t-asia-equities

[dTraderB]

At this point, we are on better footing from both a growth and inflation perspective versus where we started the year. After rallying +22% from its lows, the S&P 500 is now just 8% away from all-time highs. We know bad stuff happens, risks remain, and selloffs can happen during times of transition.

But whether you call it a recession or a slowdown, we see opportunity. In the 10 other instances since 1950 that the S&P 500 has been up 15% or more in the first half of the year, its gone on to make further gains in the second half six of those times, with the full year return on average +25%.

Stocks are the long-term growth engines of investment portfolios, and with the lows (in our view) behind us, we think investors should consider rebuilding their equity portfolios now for the next bull market.

https://www.jpmorgan...-getting-better

https://www.blackroc...arterly-outlook

A better week but still down in JUNE.
JUNE may be a 2023 record volume of trades for me. One reason is higher volume in HANG SENG & CHINESE/JAPANESE markets, also shorter time-frame as markwts mprph into a new mode: could be 0DTE & similar instruments, or simply more newbies thrashing away in VST & ST trading.

My FF is a HUGE JULY RALLY. So, I plan to transform current NET SHORT ACCOUNT position to LONG. Definitely, I will buy more FINANCIALS, SEPTEMBER & LATER OPTIONS, and more trading in ASIAN, EU, LATAM markets.

https://www.morganst...t-asia-equities

https://www.morganst...t-asia-equities

[dTraderB]

"The S&P 500's Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has reached a fresh all-time high
New highs in the A/D Line have a strong record of preceding minimal drawdowns in the index
When the line leads the index to new highs, the index tends to follow
The S&P's broadest breadth measure has reached an all-time high

Since last October, we've spent a lot of time outlining the various breadth thrusts in sectors, industries, and across broad indexes. The lasting push has finally been enough to trigger a new all-time high in the S&P 500's Cumulative Advance/Decline Line."

https://sentimentrader.com/

[dTraderB]

This will be one of my HIGH RISK trades:

xTrends (@xtrends) tweeted at 7:39 PM on Fri, Jun 23, 2023:
$TSLA got rejected from the neckline this week. Could see low 200s next week

$AMD mauled bulls all week, cant complain

My short gold
long Bond
long USD
and short ES all printed this week

We should finally see higher volatility starting next week https://t.co/vLuwHlnWtf

[dTraderB]

BEARISH stuff:
Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) tweeted at 6:01 AM on Sat, Jun 24, 2023:
Crushing the $VIX to 3 year lows just ahead of what could turn into a major geopolitical risk event: Classic.
(https://twitter.com/...3931258881?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) tweeted at 9:08 AM on Sat, Jun 24, 2023:
More than six months have passed since the financial conditions buy signal.

Neither in 2000-02 nor in 2007-08 did the buy signals persist for more than four months. https://t.co/hlsQuht1Y9

BEARISH stuff:
Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) tweeted at 6:01 AM on Sat, Jun 24, 2023:
Crushing the $VIX to 3 year lows just ahead of what could turn into a major geopolitical risk event: Classic.
(https://twitter.com/...3931258881?s=03)