83 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

I expect a VERY HAWKISH FED in JULY & AUGUST

BARRON'S:
Fed Needs to Hike Rates to Kill This Job Market. Why Its Stumped.
A Federal Reserve July rate hike may be widely expected, but what happens after that is very much on a knife edge.

The odds of another hike in September are 25%, up from 21% a week ago, according to CMEs FedWatch tool.

Theres a disconnect between the markets and the Fed when it comes to how high interest rates will go, and for how long they will stay elevated. However, on Thursday that gap closed a little as investors began to reluctantly accept the need for further tightening after a raft of strong jobs data, including private payrolls that nearly doubled expectations. The Dow and the S&P 500 had their worst days since May.

But with robust economic data, particularly of the labor variety, becoming a regular occurrence, theres a chance the Fed could also be underplaying how much more hiking is needed.

The central bank signaled two more increases in 2023. Its unlikely to stop hiking if the economy remains strong, although next weeks consumer price index reading will give an important update on its battle with inflation.

[12SPX]

Gonna be a fun day to end the week I'm sure.  Going into the report I'm average short of 4442.  Be interesting to see how it reacts to the employment report......

[dTraderB]

VERY BULLISH!

ES 4525 possible today

[dTraderB]

...UNLESS "BAD NEWS is now BAD" so that a worse than expected report is BAD

VERY BULLISH!

ES 4525 possible today

[12SPX]

Oh my, such a radical response with great news for the bulls.  Added a little to my short bringing me to 4444 though lol.  Like that number has a nice ring to it.  Bond yields moving down but not very much so will all be interesting as we enter the cash session.  May the volatility continue to get the market healthy once again.....

[12SPX]

Oh wow, turned negative as I typed, gonna be a really interesting day....

[12SPX]

Hmmmmm weaker employment with higher wages which the Fed doesn't like, I can see why bond yields have turned back up bringing futures lower.  Hmmmmmm rising interest rates going into a slow down maybe why volatility may remain a little longer.....

[12SPX]

Putting on my profit stop at 4440 and was taken out for a 4 point profit, sell higher going into the cash open.....

[12SPX]

And right back to the start again with a short build at 4440.  Think in the end this is going to be a dead Friday unless we start to see some real selling come in, seems like the market is going to have a hard time gaining any ground unless something really sparks it.

[12SPX]

And there we go, average short 4444 once again, I like that number lol!!