32 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

LONG ASIAN, SHORT US, net SHORT position

 

TLT and UVXY CALLS

 

Few SPREADS - TESLA , NVDA

 

US markets should pullback at least 5% before launching to ATH in September/October

 

ASIAN stocks will base around current levels & about 5% lower, and then spike up -- huge rally

 

I am taking a SUMMER break --- will be in several places before getting back to 100% trading 

 

But, I will be still posting etc and trading -- I like the ASIAN markets but the hours are horrible.

[dTraderB]

peaking... look at NASDAQ  100

 

https://www.marketin...summation-index

 

[dTraderB]

I LIKE WHERE THE MARKETS ARE NOW but I think trading will be much better from late AUGUST TO END OF YEAR.

 

I will not rule out another 5% SPX rally before a bigger downturn....

 

 

"SENTIMENT starting to reverse"

https://mailchi.mp/s...58?e=b27dc45da1

[dTraderB]

PUT/CALL ratio lowest since 2021

 

Persistently low readings lately for the CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio (for all products) have pulled down the 5-day moving average to its lowest reading since the top of the last bull market in December 2021.  Such readings are pretty reliably associated with meaningful tops for stock prices.  That is, unless the Fed has its thumb on the scale.

Right after the federal and state governments in the U.S. shut down everything due to Covid in 2020, the Federal Reserve responded by initiating its fourth round of quantitative easing (QE4), which lasted from March 2020 all the way to the end of 2021.  At its height, QE4 saw the Fed pumping as much as $1 trillion per month into the banking system.  That had the predictable effect of pushing up stock prices.  The actual economy could not digest being fed QE with a firehose, and so all of that money went looking for a mission.  During that Fed-fueled uptrend, we saw a lot of much lower readings for the 5-day MA of the Put/Call Ratio shown in this week's chart, and they did not matter.  That is a testament to the power of the Fed.

https://mail.google....mvhMwqMSbghGSLV

[dTraderB]

Good time to think about shorting -- everything is going up

 

https://stockcharts...._eid=8d085491f3

[redfoliage2]

The bounce is to be sold .........................

[linrom1]

Mark up time before collapse. They can't have the market run into 2024 and then correct right before the elections like in 2008 where there was no incumbent.

[redfoliage2]

Traders sold at the end of the session today - Likely some insiders unloading before the data out tomorrow morning ...................

[redfoliage2]

The market is at a swing top, and any intra-day bounces are deemed to be sold ....................

[linrom1]

...not much different than Dec 2007.