Member
Posted 18 July 2023 - 11:49 AM
I am going to steal Martin Armstrong's words "It's Just the Time." If there ever was a sector that will get incinerated, it's the hospitality industry with its commercial real estate holdings, astonishing pricing, high labor costs and over saturation.
Edited by linrom1, 18 July 2023 - 11:50 AM.
blustar
Posted 18 July 2023 - 12:26 PM
The market is at a swing top, and any intra-day bounces are deemed to be sold ....................
I tend to agree, we'll see
Member
Posted 18 July 2023 - 01:19 PM
Getting interesting now as were just hitting my upside numbers for this expiration cycle with 3 trading days to go.....
Member
Posted 19 July 2023 - 08:35 AM
Soooooo quiet on here. Guess that's what happens when you see 37 days without a 1% correction in the cash market. Yup sure is a healthy market beating earnings that have been so lowered its impossible for them to not be beat and the AI thing is ridiculous. Anyhow, more importantly call options remain way to bullish, especially the daily's can't believe the prices there. Heard yesterday that someone paid $40 million for meta options that indicate the stock needs to move 158% to be profitable. Not sure how far out but I wish I was the seller lol!! The market overall is incredibly overbought and sentiment is through the roof bullish. Continues to sound more like 2020 and 2021when the market was supposed to go to the moon lol!! Were also hitting this cycles first expiration cycle levels. Looking more and more like August is going to be very volatile to me but I guess we'll see. Haven't added to my short yet from 4475 but we'll see, may round it up a bit here as I think were approaching a peak fast....
Member
Posted 19 July 2023 - 09:00 AM
Member
Posted 19 July 2023 - 09:02 AM
Member
Posted 19 July 2023 - 11:24 AM
With two trading days left in this expiration cycle its looking like it will be another up expiration cycle for July but what is most interesting is that we'll be finishing the 13th cycle since hitting bottom. Whats interesting is that if you compare the bottom in 2009, after 13 cycles, the 14th cycle was down -9% before resuming its uptrend. The 2009 decline saw expiration cycles cut in half -49% but the bounce back in 13 cycles was 50%. We recently saw a -23% decline before hitting bottom in this correction but have now rallied back about 27% from the bottom. Of course its always easier to get higher percentages after moving up but the main point is the 13 cycle moves before a correction. Looking back at other expiration cycles that same 13 cycle move seemed to also see corrections afterwards numerous times although smaller. Main point is a person may want to lighten up a bit as we move into the August expiration cycle as volatility could kick up quite a bit.
Member
Posted 19 July 2023 - 12:29 PM
An added note to this post got me looking at all the cycles from 1983 with anything seeing at least a -10% cycle correction and out of the other 7 I found only two were up for the 14th month cycle. 1987 saw the 12th month down -5.7% putting the 13 cycle up +4% and the 13th 2019 cycle was up but only +0.3% but the next month was down -28%. Mainly just another indication to start to be wary about this move that is long in the tooth. Especially with daily options jumping to huge premiums today, kinda surprising actually so the rest of the week could be interesting as we move into expiration. All this could change if we lose the gains for this cycle but hard to believe that will happen....
Member
Posted 19 July 2023 - 03:41 PM
Member
Posted 20 July 2023 - 05:14 AM
