50 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Am bearish in the poll. Vote here:
https://www.traders-...r-monday-73123/

Am partially short US & almost flat Asian except BABA.

[dTraderB]

This guy called the bottom last year & has been bullish since then but now looks for "regime change"
Reasonable theory, but BULL MARKETS rarely die or sleep in thin Summer trading so I will hold back ln calling any important LOW until the $US falls further down. This is a good read:

JC PARETS:
At the end of the day, it's all going to come down to the US Dollar.

If the Dollar index is NOT falling, then I think stocks in general are going to have a hard time going up in the back half of the year.

image
I don't believe this is a 'want', but more of a NEED for this bull market to continue strong through the end of 2023.

Here's what the Dollar Index looks like. If it's above 101.50 then stocks are most likely selling off or generally struggling, at the very least.

image
Take a look at the Equally-

[dTraderB]

PARETS: I still don't think the second half of 2023 is going to look like the first half.

A lot of things could be different.

Let's remember, in the back half of 2022 almost every stock and sector was already going up, EXCEPT for Mega-cap growth.

And then in early January, they got the rotation they were looking for and it became Tech and Growth as the leaders of this Bull Market.

Now that we're in Month #14 of this Bull Market regime, and have seen several cycles of rotation already, I think it's time for another one.

First of all, look at the Nasdaq100 $QQQ running into former resistance from late 2021, that preceded the failed breakout and ensuing collapse:

This guy called the bottom last year & has been bullish since then but now looks for "regime change"
Reasonable theory, but BULL MARKETS rarely die or sleep in thin Summer trading so I will hold back ln calling any important LOW until the $US falls further down. This is a good read:

JC PARETS:
At the end of the day, it's all going to come down to the US Dollar.

If the Dollar index is NOT falling, then I think stocks in general are going to have a hard time going up in the back half of the year.

image
I don't believe this is a 'want', but more of a NEED for this bull market to continue strong through the end of 2023.

Here's what the Dollar Index looks like. If it's above 101.50 then stocks are most likely selling off or generally struggling, at the very least.

image
Take a look at the Equally-

[dTraderB]

PARETS:

"We're right back to the scene of the crime, a perfect place for the Nasdaq to take a breather.

We're seeing the same thing in the S&P500, which makes sense considering its largest weightings:

image
Over half the Nasdaq is Tech and a huge chunk of the S&P500 is Tech as well.

Notice the lack of Energy and Materials in those Indexes.

Here is the S&P Technology Index trying to hold this breakout to new all-time highs.

Can it do it?

image
Remember that almost half of the entire Technology Index is just Apple and Microsoft.

While Apple is holding above those former highs (like the $XLK Tech Index), Microsoft is already failing:

PARETS: I still don't think the second half of 2023 is going to look like the first half.

A lot of things could be different.

Let's remember, in the back half of 2022 almost every stock and sector was already going up, EXCEPT for Mega-cap growth.

And then in early January, they got the rotation they were looking for and it became Tech and Growth as the leaders of this Bull Market.

Now that we're in Month #14 of this Bull Market regime, and have seen several cycles of rotation already, I think it's time for another one.

First of all, look at the Nasdaq100 $QQQ running into former resistance from late 2021, that preceded the failed breakout and ensuing collapse:

This guy called the bottom last year & has been bullish since then but now looks for "regime change"
Reasonable theory, but BULL MARKETS rarely die or sleep in thin Summer trading so I will hold back ln calling any important LOW until the $US falls further down. This is a good read:

JC PARETS:
At the end of the day, it's all going to come down to the US Dollar.

If the Dollar index is NOT falling, then I think stocks in general are going to have a hard time going up in the back half of the year.

image
I don't believe this is a 'want', but more of a NEED for this bull market to continue strong through the end of 2023.

Here's what the Dollar Index looks like. If it's above 101.50 then stocks are most likely selling off or generally struggling, at the very least.

image
Take a look at the Equally-

[da_cheif]

PARETS:

"We're right back to the scene of the crime, a perfect place for the Nasdaq to take a breather.

We're seeing the same thing in the S&P500, which makes sense considering its largest weightings:

image
Over half the Nasdaq is Tech and a huge chunk of the S&P500 is Tech as well.

Notice the lack of Energy and Materials in those Indexes.

Here is the S&P Technology Index trying to hold this breakout to new all-time highs.

Can it do it?

image
Remember that almost half of the entire Technology Index is just Apple and Microsoft.

While Apple is holding above those former highs (like the $XLK Tech Index), Microsoft is already failing:
 

PARETS: I still don't think the second half of 2023 is going to look like the first half.

A lot of things could be different.

Let's remember, in the back half of 2022 almost every stock and sector was already going up, EXCEPT for Mega-cap growth.

And then in early January, they got the rotation they were looking for and it became Tech and Growth as the leaders of this Bull Market.

Now that we're in Month #14 of this Bull Market regime, and have seen several cycles of rotation already, I think it's time for another one.

First of all, look at the Nasdaq100 $QQQ running into former resistance from late 2021, that preceded the failed breakout and ensuing collapse:

 

This guy called the bottom last year & has been bullish since then but now looks for "regime change"
Reasonable theory, but BULL MARKETS rarely die or sleep in thin Summer trading so I will hold back ln calling any important LOW until the $US falls further down. This is a good read:

JC PARETS:
At the end of the day, it's all going to come down to the US Dollar.

If the Dollar index is NOT falling, then I think stocks in general are going to have a hard time going up in the back half of the year.

image
I don't believe this is a 'want', but more of a NEED for this bull market to continue strong through the end of 2023.

Here's what the Dollar Index looks like. If it's above 101.50 then stocks are most likely selling off or generally struggling, at the very least.

image
Take a look at the Equally-

 

parets........ur kidding   lamazoff

[dTraderB]

ASIA:
"Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI expected)
Japan to unveil consumer confidence, housing starts and unemployment data for June
Australia due to release July manufacturing PMI, June building approvals
South Korea on deck with July import/export growth report"

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
U.S. corporate earnings: Loews, Arista Networks, Eversource Energy, Welltower, Western Digital, ON Semiconductor, SBA Communications, Hologic, Monolithic Power, Republic Services, Diamondback Energy, Avalonbay
U.S. July MNI Chicago business survey, Dallas Fed July manufacturing survey
U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills

[dTraderB]

"On Tuesday, Australia's central bank is expected to follow in the footsteps of its global peers by hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points.



In the United States, all three major stock indexes followed Asia's example by posting modest gains, which could embolden Asian stocks to extend the rally as the calendar rolls over to August.



Before Wall Street's opening bell on Tuesday, heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc's <CAT.N> results will be scanned for clues on the global demand outlook.



U.S. data expected on Tuesday includes the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing PMI print for July, and the Labor Department's Job Openings report for June.



Both reports should provide further clarity on the effects of the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy on the world's largest economy.

Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:
Reserve Bank of Australia's policy rate decision
S&P Global releases India manufacturing PMI for July
South Korea July CPI data"

[redfoliage2]

It looks the market is still waiting for AAPL to report on Thursday, so dips still get bought and bounces sold ................ ...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 August 2023 - 08:40 AM.

[redfoliage2]

Okay, just bought some ES calls at this dip and it's very likely that we will see another "Oorah" from bulls just around AAPl reporting date .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 August 2023 - 09:38 AM.