50 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

Been getting ready for holidays so not paying much attention here but with this Fitch warning thought I'd make a couple comments.  First off, can't believe how everyone is discounting it as its a big thing and if S&P follows along maybe blue's original forecast could come true by Aug 7th lol!!  I remember in 2011 when S&P lowered their ratings and the S&P ended up falling over -10% pretty quick and that was in August.  Another thing to note is that there hasn't been a -1% fall in over 47 sessions, bullishness is through the roof, interest rates are on the rise and call options are insanely priced.  Besides all that my program numbers are indicating a huge probability of a down cycle into the 18th!  I'm still holding my short at 4500 so we'll see how that turns out in the end, likely adjust during holidays if hit we'll see.  The rally has kept going because strangely people think there won't be a recession and it'll be a soft landing anddddd the Fed is going to cut rates next year.  Why would the Fed lower rates if the economy is remaining strong especially when commodities have been on the rise now for over  a month so guess what, prices are going to start to rise again lol!!  Doesn't make sense, but then again our world has turned and doesn't like to follow common sense anymore lol!!  This will be the first time ever there wasn't a recession with manufacturing falling for I believe 11 mths in a row now, deficits skyrocketing and tax receipts at their lowest levels ever etc etc etc.  A slowdown is coming this fall and volatility will return with new levels for the market to grind in between....

[12SPX]

obviously earnings estimates are all too low...analysts are in on it.  lol

everyone beats....ya right. well almost everyone.

Ya thats another joke, they were lowered so far it was impossible to not beat.  Practically everyone had lower revenues but beat in other ways thus the reason their multiples are on the rise but hey who cares the soft landing is coming with all time record debt limits lol!!  

[redfoliage2]

Let's see what AAPL will bring up tomorrow.  Market internals improved today.  Bears better cover today ................

Edited by redfoliage2, 02 August 2023 - 09:09 AM.

[redfoliage2]

I see this is still a good dip to buy before the rally finally ends, and likely a ST bottom here ...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 02 August 2023 - 10:46 AM.

[Keepingcool]

wow... and look at that...almost  EVERYONE beats  estimates.again....too funny.

[dTraderB]

Reduced SHORT positions but still partly SHORT with HEDGES

Want to be ALMOST FLAT to SMALL SHORT NET position by 4pm Super Earnings Thursday

 

Difficult to see bearish reports from AAPLE AND AMAZON et al 

 

Hence, my earlier FF for markets to drop and then rally into Thursday afternoon and end the week GREEN

 

But, NFM should be bearish so I prefer to be FLAT to SHORT  and go into next week SHORT

 

Great page here:
https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

[dTraderB]

"Services PMI data from Australia, Japan, India and China are due on Thursday, with China's unofficial Caixin report coming under the closest scrutiny. It is expected to show the seventh straight month of growth, but at a slower pace from June.

China's economic indicators have undershot consensus for months, and by a significant margin too. Could that be about to turn?"

 

 

Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

• China, Japan, India, Australia services PMI(July)
• - Australia trade balance (June)
• - Bank of England rate decision

[dTraderB]

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

BOE monetary policy decision, UK July reserves balance

Apple, Amazon, Block, Booking Holding, Airbnb, Expedia, Stryker, Cigna; Rolls-Royce, Infineon, Adidas AG, BMW

Euro zone June PPI
Germany June trade balance
France June budget balance

U.S. initial jobless claims, Q2 productivity and labour costs, June factory orders
U.S., Italy, France, Sweden, Spain, France, Germany, Euro Zone, UK July service PMI, Fed's Barkin speaks

[dTraderB]

ALERT TRIGGER wakes me again!  Different time zones takes time to adjust....

 

NQ 15365 LONG

2 NQ & 1 ES HEDGE LONG

About flat now .... will daytrade until EARNINGS after 4 pm

...unless market dictates otherwise...

 

Markets looking enticing at this hour but got to get more sleep, later

[dTraderB]

Watch for this from the BIG TECHs:
"Theres also scope for an unexpected AI announcement."