168 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

DOUG was short, called it SHORT fir a few days to tge top:

Dougie Kass (@DougKass) posted at 3:59 PM on Wed, Aug 16, 2023:
The Short Range S&P Oscillator is starting to gap higher into deeper oversold (-3.96% from -2.92% previous day) - maybe some market stability ahead (but still limited upside?) @dougkass @realmoney

[dTraderB]

In the extremely low range, reversal territory, near -300
https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

This is good, all major indices:
https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

In the extremely low range, reversal territory, near -300
https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

My FF: good August run for the BEARS, to be followed by basing & rally into end of August. Then the dreaded SEPTEMBER...

[dTraderB]

"4404-4411. This is resistance of the yellow trendline shown below that connects the December and January highs. We broke out of this way back on June 1st, starting a major leg up. Today, we back-tested and tried two bounces off it before rejecting lower. Since this is the most immediate major support that failed, it is it is now the immediate squeeze trigger on the reclaim of 4404.

4369 then 4340-45 are next major levels down and 4342-44 is a magnet now and fairly large support." -- ADAM

[dTraderB]

CRASHY "BLACK FRIDAY" or MONDAY? possibility?

ODDS ARE A BIT HIGHER of a big DOWN FRIDAY OR MONDAY.

BE CAREFUL.

James Choi (@JC_Investment) posted at 8:47 PM on Thu, Aug 17, 2023:
Bonds are crashing.

My estimate is that there's approximately 10% chance of this bond collapse could cause a credit event at this moment.

This probability can change over time, I will keep you updated.

[dTraderB]

Been in markets long enough to know when to prepare for high risk event. Now is one such time, few days or longer.
HIGHER RISK IF CREDIT EVENT.
NOT FEARMONGERING, CRASH etc, but high risk that can trigger any major market instability. I have now gone into very small NET SHORT POSITION. Let us be alert & careful & we will get past this.

Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) posted at 9:43 PM on Thu, Aug 17, 2023:
Mizuhos Dominic Konstantinos games out a 4.6% 10-year Treasury yield. You have to be very careful because because this undermines risk assets. This is very insidious. https://t.co/75qk1nUznT
(https://twitter.com/...3536403704?s=03)


James Choi (@JC_Investment) posted at 8:47 PM on Thu, Aug 17, 2023:
Bonds are crashing.

My estimate is that there's approximately 10% chance of this bond collapse could cause a credit event at this moment.

This probability can change over time, I will keep you updated.

[dTraderB]

Mortgage rates hit a 21-year high. The lending giant Freddie Mac said yesterday that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage, the most common home loan in America, surpassed 7 percent this week; a year ago it was at 5.19 percent. Ballooning rates for financing and a tight supply of homes are pricing an increasing number of Americans out of the housing market.

dTraderB, on 18 Aug 2023 - 6:08 PM, said:

"Yesterday, alarm bells sounded on both sides of the Atlantic as investors sold government bonds en masse, sending yields to multiyear highs. The 10-year Treasury note climbed to a height it last hit in the early days of the global financial crisis in 2008.

This sentiment trickled down to stocks and crypto. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the largest cryptocurrencies, plunged overnight, with Bitcoin sinking to a two-month low below $26,500. The Wall Street Journals report that SpaceX, Elon Musks rocket company, wrote down the value of its Bitcoin stake over the past two years and sold some of it hasnt improved sentiment around the highly volatile asset class.

Chinas woes are also weighing on global markets. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell into a bear market this morning as investors pulled back on Chinese stocks with the economy slowing and a property-market crisis brewing. This morning, analysts at Nomura were the latest to lower their forecast for Chinas growth. Adding to the jitters, the renminbi hit a 16-year low against the dollar this morning, prompting emergency moves to prop up the currency. That did little to soothe investors nerves"
- NYT DEALBOOK

[12SPX]

Well this is going to be a fun expiration.  Not only are we going to see a gap down for expiration, last night my city started on fire on the 20th anniversary of the last big fire here where you could sit and watch the hills burn at night.  Both my places were almost on evacuation alert but we made it through.  Anyhow, think all the bulls are gonna be silent this morning with this mornings sell off and were likely nearing a short term bottom to start a rally for the end of the month with today's expiration.  Getting a little pricey on the put side and markets quite oversold as were now approaching the breakout levels of June.  I was saying back then the market wasn't being rational as it plodded ahead to 4607 with no reprieve and now were back to where it started.  Gotta love the grind lol!!!  Average long now 4410, will be an interesting day for trading!!