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Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) and 20+ year treasury bond etf TLT


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#1 barbu

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 10:16 AM

Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX)  and 20+ year treasury bond etf TLT

 

This topic may become hot in the coming months, for better tracking,  it is better having an independent thread.

 

Macro view:
- Debt limit pushes to January 2025
- Treasury Department is likely to begin gradually increasing the size of its note and bond auctions , in order to finance higher spending as its tax revenues decline.

US Ramps Up Debt Issuance, Adding Fuel to Selloff in Treasuries 08/02/23

Treasury auctions end on a downbeat note this week after soft 30-year sale 08/11/23

 

 

After roughly 8 to 9 months consolidations, TLT falls below its important support  97.66, It is heading to a new low.  07 August 2023 - 06:37 PM
imho, the TLT low target zone is 87-81(86.68-81.05), when price approaches the target zone, a fine tuning task is required , Timing wise is not clear yet, anyway, TLT moves in a relative slow fashion, intermixes with up/down swings, so there is no hurry to nail the time window at this moment. August 2023 - 11:13 AM

 

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#2 MDurkin

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 10:56 AM

https://stockcharts....835&a=264692101



#3 12SPX

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 02:45 PM

Yay, starting a short build at 4500 once again....



#4 MikeyG

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 05:14 PM

2001 SP earnings yield 3.36%

 

10 year 5% yield. 

 

Are we there yet? Not going to be pretty if we do get there...


Edited by MikeyG, 14 August 2023 - 05:14 PM.

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#5 barbu

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Posted 27 August 2023 - 07:28 PM

[ 08/08/23 imho, the TLT low target zone is 87-81(86.68-81.05) ]

 

10 Year Treasury Rate breached 4.36% and then reversed.

The long term rate may experience a few roll-up-down cycles down the road, imho, it is a difficult target to estimate. that means Fed will have hard time maneuvering it,  as the worldwide geopolitical/economy environment is quite different than prior decades, in particular, the debt level is in an astronomical level these days.

 

TLT trajectory exhibits a 5 wave structure, currently rides on the fourth wave.

 

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Edited by barbu, 27 August 2023 - 07:37 PM.