14 replies to this topic

[barbu]

 

S&P500 ($SPX) short term 1st target zone  4448-4430-4403 (refer to the following chart)
 timing - middle August - end of August +/-,  [2022 summer peak on 08/16/22 @4325.28, WD Gann 360 degree, anniversary]

 

Posted 08 August 2023 - 12:15 PM

 

 

so far (08/16, @ this writing), the $SPX intraday low is 4431.16.  jogs near the major retracement ratio 0.707/4429.80.

This is the first down leg from the recent high 4607.07, it could deploy either an impulse 5-wave down series or  a 3-wave corrective pattern.

 

[barbu]

08/16 Closing Bell: intraday low 4403.55,  nearby reference  4402.79 (157.1% half of Pi)(refer to the first post)

 

 

imho: should $SPX dive below 4344-4328, it confirms 4607.07 as a middle term top. some analyst (such as Mike Golembesky  Aug 15, 2023)  suggests "the 4411 level acting as further confirmation that a top may indeed be in place". 

 

standard 0.236 retracement 4343,81 [4607.07-3491.58], nearby wave ④ reference 4328.08

 

E-Woofer structure (may not comply with rigid hierarchical nomenclature)

[barbu]

The market is unsettling,  i park in the 3/6-month zero coupon rate treasury bill.  i will wait dust settling down (at least for the short term), and then layout the most possible scenario.

[pdx5]

Michael Burry, of ‘Big Short’ fame, just bet $1.6 billion on a stock market crash

 

https://www.yahoo.co...-162713259.html

[linrom1]

Michael Burry, of ‘Big Short’ fame, just bet $1.6 billion on a stock market crash

 

https://www.yahoo.co...-162713259.html

 

This is really old news. This is all notional value of puts which I think is about 20k QQQs and 20k SPY....he was also hedged.

[barbu]

S&P500 ($SPX) short term 1st target zone  4448-4430-4403 (refer to the following chart)
 timing - middle August - end of August +/-,  [2022 summer peak on 08/16/22 @4325.28, WD Gann 360 degree, anniversary]

Posted 08 August 2023 - 12:15 PM

 

imho: should $SPX dive below 4344-4328, it confirms 4607.07 as a middle term top.standard 0.236 retracement 4343,81 [4607.07-3491.58], nearby wave ④ reference 4328.08   

Posted 16 August 2023 - 05:05 PM

 

 

 

08/18 intraday low 4335.31 @ this writing.

The (initial) pullback usually will (at least) hit  wave ④ reference 4328.08, the range is around 4312(4311.69)-4344(4343.81), so far the index movement fits this script.  if S&P500 bounces from this zone, it may try to re-capture the 21SMA, from there, a new down leg initiates .......

 

4343.81 - a standard 0.236 retracement

4311.69 - 0.618 [All time high - October 22 Low],[4607.07-3491.58],

4325.28 - 08/16/22 : WD Gann 360 degree 08/16/23 (+/-)

Autumn Equinox - Friday, September 22, 2023. This is the WD Gann seasonality important date. A  possible turn date is -22, -11, 0, +11, +22 (trading day) leads/lags the important date. The Gann seasonality sometimes works, sometimes is irrelevant.

Edited by barbu, 18 August 2023 - 10:36 AM.

[K Wave]

Watch Dax pivot low test on Friday...

 

IF that gets broken soon, the cascade of time frame rollovers begins in earnest....

 

Multiple different things stopped a hugely critical area on Friday...Apple 173 one of them.

RUT 1830 another, and that needle bottom does have some potential for bulls.

 

But if they all get blown out, then I start getting seriously bearish...flat into the weekend, and may try some longs next week for a bounce...but ready to re-enter heavily short should certain things happen.

 

Here is DAX 3 hour 150/200 waveform, with 4 hour hot on its heels.....careful out there if Friday's low goes bye bye.

That cherry on top still very ominous looking at this juncture..................

 

 

 

[K Wave]

Here's that Rusty chart.....last chance for romance for bulls it looks like to me....

 

But if they do find love, possible it could be a lasting one...

HUGE pivot here.....

 

[K Wave]

Hourly look at Rusty...

 

Either bulls complete a huge transition back into longer term bull mode...or...they fail

This is the grand moment of truth most likely....

 

[K Wave]

Rusty weekly

 

IF bulls fail to hold Friday's low, the weekly 900 will become the target, and possibly lower will be eventually seen...Covid low big round 1K the obvious one

 

But should they continue to hold, and complete that grand transition, and then take out 2K, something COMPLETELY different would likely be going on.

 

I see enough stuff going on that makes me skeptical bulls will be able to hold...but if they do, certainly not going to fight it.