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BULLISH intraday reversal but more declines ahead


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 20 August 2023 - 08:50 AM

Small SPY & QQQ CALL pisitiond
Large HSI & CHINA A50 position

I expect a rally that should fizzle out after 2 to 3%, could test recent highs, and that wiil gift you the SHORT OF 2023, so far.

#2 dTraderB

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Posted 20 August 2023 - 08:51 AM

Helene's poll is quite bullish

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 10:40 PM on Sat, Aug 19, 2023:
Net sentiment shows the largest spread (to the upside) since March 3rd.
https://t.co/Qcwm3ApTD5

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 4:32 PM on Sat, Aug 19, 2023:
Saturday Poll

The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://twitter.com/...1590662487?s=03)

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 20 August 2023 - 08:56 AM

Want to buy CALLS but missed the recentvlow. Will not rush in now... lower low later

Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) posted at 6:08 PM on Fri, Aug 18, 2023:
"I own $NVDA, I think it's going to go higher," says @fs_insight's @MarkNewtonCMT. "You have to use a different playbook with stocks like $NVDA. We have gotten overbought, but that doesn't mean you sell it here." https://t.co/5j0v8KVm1O

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 20 August 2023 - 09:02 AM

Still down there at -227
Could rally to near zero then reverse hard down to below -250

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 20 August 2023 - 09:06 AM

HUGE RALLY AHEAD, says Tom!

Maybe in early & late September

"Are You Ready for a Huge Rally?
AUGUST 18, 2023 AT 10:25

If I'm being totally objective, again ignoring the short-term volatility and emotional toll, mid-July's story was one of caution and suggested minimizing risk. The current environment, however, is the mostly opposite of what we saw one month ago. This is the time to hold your nose and buy.

Just my opinion.

https://stockcharts....-rally-708.html

#6 dTraderB

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Posted 20 August 2023 - 09:08 AM



A significant downward shift in the Risk On/Off Indicator
Key points:

The SentimenTrader Risk On/Off Indicator declined by 25% over three trading sessions
Similar shifts in the composite led to weak returns for the S&P 500 over the next three weeks
Defensive sectors tend to outperform other groups under similar conditions
Sharp and sudden shifts in indicators provide useful insights

Stocks continue to drift lower in an orderly manner after a solid start to the year. As I discussed in a note a few weeks ago, the breakout in rates suggested stocks could consolidate/correct. That was especially the case during FOMC tightening cycles.

With stocks retreating, the SentimenTrader Risk On/Off Indicator contracted meaningfully over the last three trading sessions.

The model, a composite that measures the percentage of indicators considered to be risk-on, declined by more than 25%.

#7 dTraderB

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Posted 20 August 2023 - 09:12 AM

"US equity indexes mixed; volatility down

$SPX down 0.01% at 4370.03, $INDU up 0.08% at 34501.88; $COMPQ down 0.2% at 13290.78
$VIX down 3.52% at 17.26
Best performing sector for the week: Technology
Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Discretionary
Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Super Micro Computer (SMCI); Celsius Holdings (CELH); NVIDIA (NVDA); Eli Lilly (LLY); XP Inc. (XP)
On the Radar Next Week

July existing home sales
July new home sales
July Durable Goods Orders
Fed speeches
Jackson Hole symposium kicks off

https://stockcharts....ter-vo-756.html

#8 dTraderB

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Posted 20 August 2023 - 10:22 PM

The sun may finally shine for the bulls after weeks of dark bearish clouds... but enjoy the brief moments of glorious sunshine because it 

will soon rain again....deluge ... more bears rampaging

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

 



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 21 August 2023 - 05:41 AM

"US equity indexes mixed; volatility down

$SPX down 0.01% at 4370.03, $INDU up 0.08% at 34501.88; $COMPQ down 0.2% at 13290.78
$VIX down 3.52% at 17.26
Best performing sector for the week: Technology
Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Discretionary
Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Super Micro Computer (SMCI); Celsius Holdings (CELH); NVIDIA (NVDA); Eli Lilly (LLY); XP Inc. (XP)
On the Radar Next Week

July existing home sales
July new home sales
July Durable Goods Orders
Fed speeches
Jackson Hole symposium kicks off

https://stockcharts....ter-vo-756.html

#10 dTraderB

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Posted 21 August 2023 - 05:47 AM

Strange behavior of global market. "STRANGE" is nornally bearish but only CHINA & HONG KONG are still dropping hard.

REUTERS: Bonds burn on as China rate cut underwhelms

Bonds burn on as China rate cut underwhelms