BULLS again escaped - CHINA dragging diwn global economy, markets
Posted 27 August 2023 - 08:30 AM
POWELL was firmly hawkish. Seasonslly bearish still although they say LABOR HOLIDAY is normally bullish.
My FF is markets continue rallying but with intra & daily pullbacks. But, the bears will regain control & push it lower into October.
I am LONG US STOCKS, hedged partially; building a LT LONG POSITION IN NVDA as well as CALLS IN RT PORTFOLIO.
BIG CHINESE & HSI LONG POSITION WITH FRENETIC ST TRADING IN HSI & A50 during last week.
Posted 27 August 2023 - 08:31 AM
Cathy Yuan Zhang (@CathyYuanZhang) posted at 6:30 PM on Sun, Aug 27, 2023:
#Chinese authorities made several big announcements today to boost #stock market:
To halve stamp duty on stock trading;
To tighten IPOs;
To cut margin financing requirements;
To restrict listed companies' refinancing;
To restrict share reductions by major shareholders.
Posted 27 August 2023 - 08:35 AM
Helene's poll is almost even, 52-48, slight edge to BULLS:
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 4:01 AM on Sun, Aug 27, 2023:
The results are in and folks lean a tiny bit bullish. Very tiny.
Thanks for voting!
Posted 27 August 2023 - 08:40 AM
Leading indicators trigger a buy signal for stocks
The OECD Composite Leading Indicators for the U.S. reversed higher from contraction territory
Similar reversals led to extremely bullish outcomes for the S&P 500 over the next twelve months
Early-cycle sectors tend to outperform after leading indicators shift higher, like now
One version of leading indicators for the United States triggers a buy signal
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) compiles a composite of leading indicators for G20 countries. The CLIs can be aggregated into a diffusion index or used as a standalone measure for countries to identify an economic upswing that provides a bullish fundamental tailwind for stocks.
The model I use for individual countries requires the CLI to fall into contraction territory and rise by a user-defined amount from the subsequent low.
In the case of the United States, I require the CLI to fall below 99.5 and rise by 0.25 points from its trough, a condition that triggered a new buy signal with the most recent update from the OECD.
Posted 27 August 2023 - 08:48 AM
The NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator reaches an oversold level
The chart below highlights all dates when the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped below -75 while the Nasdaq 100 Index was above its 200-day moving average. The latest signal occurred on 2023-08-17.
Another chart here:
Posted 27 August 2023 - 08:54 AM
The calendar may not make it any easier for the market either. We have now entered a period of poorer seasonality that could last until around the beginning of October.
Seasonality is always more of a guide than a rule, but over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has, on average, topped out around this time and then drifted lower into early October. Going back 20 years, at best the S&P has gone sideways from August to October when we average them all. This year, such a pullback or stall period would make a lot of sense after such a one-sided rally since the beginning of the year.
I've highlighted the numerous failures to break the downtrend the Russell 2000 (iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Stock Price Today, Quote & News) has racked up since the all-time high in November '21. It's been three weeks since the last failure, and there is nothing BULLISH in the chart of the small caps..."
Posted 27 August 2023 - 08:55 AM
Posted 27 August 2023 - 08:59 AM