372 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

A JACKSON HOLE minor miracle as BULLS reversed earlier declines.
POWELL was firmly hawkish. Seasonslly bearish still although they say LABOR HOLIDAY is normally bullish.

My FF is markets continue rallying but with intra & daily pullbacks. But, the bears will regain control & push it lower into October.

I am LONG US STOCKS, hedged partially; building a LT LONG POSITION IN NVDA as well as CALLS IN RT PORTFOLIO.

BIG CHINESE & HSI LONG POSITION WITH FRENETIC ST TRADING IN HSI & A50 during last week.

[dTraderB]

Chinese trying again, and again... but no traction do far. However, this latest attempt looks more promising:

Cathy Yuan Zhang (@CathyYuanZhang) posted at 6:30 PM on Sun, Aug 27, 2023:
#Chinese authorities made several big announcements today to boost #stock market:

To halve stamp duty on stock trading;
To tighten IPOs;
To cut margin financing requirements;
To restrict listed companies' refinancing;
To restrict share reductions by major shareholders.

[dTraderB]

I voted UP in Mark's poll.
Helene's poll is almost even, 52-48, slight edge to BULLS:

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 4:01 AM on Sun, Aug 27, 2023:
The results are in and folks lean a tiny bit bullish. Very tiny.

Thanks for voting!

[dTraderB]

UP on FRIDAY but still languishing at -100

I think it retests -200 or lower & then rallies

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

SENTIMENT TRADER says a BUY SIGNAL TRIGGERED:

Leading indicators trigger a buy signal for stocks
Key points:

The OECD Composite Leading Indicators for the U.S. reversed higher from contraction territory
Similar reversals led to extremely bullish outcomes for the S&P 500 over the next twelve months
Early-cycle sectors tend to outperform after leading indicators shift higher, like now
One version of leading indicators for the United States triggers a buy signal

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) compiles a composite of leading indicators for G20 countries. The CLIs can be aggregated into a diffusion index or used as a standalone measure for countries to identify an economic upswing that provides a bullish fundamental tailwind for stocks.

The model I use for individual countries requires the CLI to fall into contraction territory and rise by a user-defined amount from the subsequent low.

In the case of the United States, I require the CLI to fall below 99.5 and rise by 0.25 points from its trough, a condition that triggered a new buy signal with the most recent update from the OECD.

https://mailchi.mp/s...26?e=b27dc45da1

[dTraderB]

SENTIMENT TRADER:
The NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator reaches an oversold level

The chart below highlights all dates when the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped below -75 while the Nasdaq 100 Index was above its 200-day moving average. The latest signal occurred on 2023-08-17.
--'

Another chart here:

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

[dTraderB]

"..Given the fact that rally attempts are quickly thwarted and the fact that several red flags (overbought conditions) had popped up before this decline, I remain in no hurry to try to jump in front of this retracement until I see more evidence of buyers stepping in.

Seasonality
The calendar may not make it any easier for the market either. We have now entered a period of poorer seasonality that could last until around the beginning of October.

Seasonality is always more of a guide than a rule, but over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has, on average, topped out around this time and then drifted lower into early October. Going back 20 years, at best the S&P has gone sideways from August to October when we average them all. This year, such a pullback or stall period would make a lot of sense after such a one-sided rally since the beginning of the year.

Small Caps
I've highlighted the numerous failures to break the downtrend the Russell 2000 (iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Stock Price Today, Quote & News) has racked up since the all-time high in November '21. It's been three weeks since the last failure, and there is nothing BULLISH in the chart of the small caps..."

https://seekingalpha...consensus-grows

[dTraderB]

"...From a market perspective, the market remains in a continued August-September correction period, which follows five straight months of accelerated gains. A correction was needed, given the market was up more than 15% in the years first half. Nonetheless, the market continues to trade within its bullish trend and tested and rallied off that level on Friday for a second time. It also remains above critical support levels for now. With the MACD sell signal beginning to turn and the RSI index improving, we could see a further rally next week..."

https://realinvestme...risk-to-stocks/

[dTraderB]

Eagerly waiting for the opening if HSI & CHINESE markets. Looking for a pop...will it hold this time?

[hhh]

The Sentiment Trader image can maybe be viewed at this link if not a subscriber:

 

https://us-browse.st...189ee52d9a0b8c6