608 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Shutdown averted & change from Bearish to Bullish seasonality should give BULLS the edge in a new week, new month, new quarter.

However, market WILL drop many times during the next few weeks and could make a lower low than that in Q3.

I am partially LONG US, STILL MEDIUM LONG Chinese & HSI which will be closed this week. THE WHOLE WEEK? YEAH. HOLIDAY WEEK that should boost the economy & markets there.

Edited by dTraderB, 01 October 2023 - 09:11 AM.

[dTraderB]

GOOD ANALYSIS - reiterating HIGH YIELDS & OIL PRICE as well as soaring DOLLAR are still keeping markets down.

"...The S&P 500 snapped out of its 10-day funk this week and finally showed some signs of stabilizing just above the all-important 200-day moving average.

S&P
S&P 500 (www.tc2000.com)

Just about every market technician has that as their "line in the sand". When everyone is thinking the same way, we usually find out no one is thinking. My thoughts led me to believe one of two scenarios might play out. Either the S&P never gets to the "target", stabilizes, and goes higher, OR the index falls right through the so-called support level, and scares a majority of traders out of the market before stabilizing.

Given the price action this week, the first scenario might be playing out. The problem with going all in on that notion, the market can easily reverse from here and head lower. What we could be witnessing is nothing more than an oversold bounce that will fall apart quickly.

That falls into the category of what I've come to call a "50-50 market". There is not much conviction to SELL, nor is there enough conviction to BUY. Certainly, not enough of a push either way to give an investor enough reason to do much of anything. One thing that is now very apparent - the intermediate top on July 28th that was posted on the chart at the beginning of August is now in fact a correct call.

FINAL THOUGHTS
If you want to boil the current market down to three key variables, the 10-year Treasury yield, the price of crude oil, and the US dollar are a great start. If the uptrends in crude oil and the dollar start to weaken, it might bring the 10-year Treasury yield back under 4.3%, so the chart to watch is the 10-year Treasury note. As of the close on Friday that has yet to occur, and unless the market adjusts to this new rate environment, equities are going to struggle.

The opening quote should remind investors to deal with reality and avoid the everyday noise of the headlines. Trade the market that is in front of us and not the one that we want. We've seen a perfect example of that lately. It sure seems like the bulk of the investment world just couldn't come to grips with interest rates at these levels and have a hard time believing they will stay there (or higher) for a while. .."

https://seekingalpha...ouds-everywhere

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 11:26 PM on Fri, Sep 29, 2023:
1 week ago, I posted how $SPX seasonals tracked with extreme precision all year. It did again this week, with back two weeks of Sept being worst of the year. The last 4 years in a row all saw late Sept melt-downs & early Oct lows

IF it continues, seasonal turn point approaching.

Have a great weekend! This week #ES_F tested its 200dma *and* Its bull market trendline from Oct 2022 at 4290. Decision time for bulls

Plan Next Week: 4322, 4290-4300=supports. Rally to 4380, dip, then 4425+ in play as long as above 4290. If 4290 fails though, its short to 4230

[dTraderB]

Her poll is Very bullish 58-42

Helene Meisler The results are in and folks lean bullish. In fact it's the most bullish since the August low. posted at 4:30 PM on Sat, Sep 30, 2023:
Saturday Poll.

The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://x.com/hmeisl...6483342558?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Yeah, but market rallies are severely limited now by high yields & crude price, dollar spiking up

"The good news is that the summer weakness sets the markets up for a more substantial year-end rally.

October Rallies Follow Summer Weakness
As shown in the table below, There were three occasions where October continued to sport weak market returns following a negative return in the previous two months. However, there was only one occasion following summer weakness in August and September, where the fourth quarter also yielded a negative return.

On average, when summer weakness prevailed in August and September, October tended to be higher by 4.5%, with the fourth quarter averaging a 7% return."
https://realinvestme...year-end-rally/

[dTraderB]

BUSY WEEK!
Key Events This Week:

1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI - Monday

2. Fed Chair Powell Speech - Monday

3. Tesla $TSLA Q3 Deliveries - Monday

4. JOLTS Job Openings Survey - Tuesday

5. FOMC Member Bostic Speech - Tuesday

6. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls - Wednesday

7. ISM Services PMI - Wednesday

8. Initial Jobless Claims Thursday

9. FOMC Member Daly Speech - Thursday

10. Fed's Balance Sheet Data - Thursday

11. U.S. Jobs Report - Friday

12. FOMC Member Waller Speech - Friday

13. U.S. Consumer Credit Data

[redfoliage2]

With a surprising turn in the Congress in the last hours Saturday a gov shutdown was avoided.  I see a relief rally is in the cards .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 October 2023 - 06:13 PM.

[Carl]

After watching the future I am very impress at your Forecast

[redfoliage2]

Well, here is what I said way before the futures open:

 

 

Posted 29 September 2023 - 01:45 PM

redfoliage2, on 29 Sept 2023 - 12:59 PM, said:

 

redfoliage2, on 29 Sept 2023 - 11:42 AM, said:

It looks there still a chance the Congress may be able to find a solution to avoid a shutdown, but they need to get it done before midnight Saturday .....................

With the opening gap now back filled an afternoon bounce up is very likely.........................

 

Shorts better cover before the close today as the Congress may come up with something out of the hat over the weekend  .........................

 

 

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 October 2023 - 08:13 PM.

[SteveB]

That might be an easy forecast, but Red does the hard ones too and is right more often than not. I tend to pay attention when he posts.