According to my risk summation system, the risk window this week for a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is a rather large one stretching from Tuesday October 10th through Thursday October 12th. The crash risk window is also in play this week stretching from Wednesday October 11th through Monday October 16th.
Last week the Monday October 2nd risk window didn't really catch a turn or acceleration so it has to go down as a dud. The Friday the 6th - Monday the 9th risk window appears to have caught a low, but I will be surprised if this new run up survives the big risk window this week, but so far so good.
Considering there are two wars ragging simultaneously, inflation driven by energy potentially resurging, a completely dysfunctional House of Representatives and a third world wanna be presidential campaign, normally a black swan swooping in to whack the stock market would be a pretty good bet, but these are anything but normal times. Fed heads are out on the stump in full force dropping hints that all the nasty tightening is done and the next interest rate move will be lower. Hard to hatch that black swan when all the Fed heads are running around cracking every egg they can find trying to make omelettes.
Regards,
Douglas
