More on that later. I am partially SHORT & I voted BEARISH in Mark's poll
This is a great article from Tom on the McClellan OSC current interpretation. I rexommend you purchase the PDF for a mere $10. Do it... it's eeally good.
https://www.mcoscill...ure_above_zero/
Global Instability Bearsish; Seasonality getting Bullish
Started by
dTraderB
, Oct 15 2023 03:40 PM
526 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 15 October 2023 - 03:43 PM
Her poll is bearish 53-47
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 6:59 AM on Sat, Oct 14, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://x.com/hmeisl...2720362775?s=03)
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 6:59 AM on Sat, Oct 14, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://x.com/hmeisl...2720362775?s=03)
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 15 October 2023 - 03:45 PM
Good one, xTrends!
xTrends (@xtrends) posted at 11:13 AM on Sun, Oct 15, 2023:
Monthly chart of Utilities / Nasdaq ratio vs $SPX .....
A small regional war may help bulls little bit in short term and delay the inevitable
$XLU $QQQ $SPY https://t.co/FeGHCKRAOd
xTrends (@xtrends) posted at 11:13 AM on Sun, Oct 15, 2023:
Monthly chart of Utilities / Nasdaq ratio vs $SPX .....
A small regional war may help bulls little bit in short term and delay the inevitable
$XLU $QQQ $SPY https://t.co/FeGHCKRAOd
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 15 October 2023 - 03:48 PM
I lost confidence in VIX a few years ago... but SentimentTrader has good stuff, may be right:
The fear gauge triggered a buy signal for stocks
Key points:
The Volatility Index (VIX) reversed from the upper end of its 84-day range, triggering a buy signal for stocks
Similar shifts in volatility preceded a rally in the S&P 500 with above-average returns across several horizons
Precedents that occurred in October or in a long-term uptrend show similar bullish outcomes
A bullish shift in expected volatility
Over the course of a typical stock market correction, volatility, sentiment, and price-based indicators generally follow a repeatable pattern. Volatility surges, sentiment indicators reflect pessimism and price-based measures become oversold.
As the corrective phase wanes, the pendulum...
https://mailchi.mp/0...gnal-for-stocks
The fear gauge triggered a buy signal for stocks
Key points:
The Volatility Index (VIX) reversed from the upper end of its 84-day range, triggering a buy signal for stocks
Similar shifts in volatility preceded a rally in the S&P 500 with above-average returns across several horizons
Precedents that occurred in October or in a long-term uptrend show similar bullish outcomes
A bullish shift in expected volatility
Over the course of a typical stock market correction, volatility, sentiment, and price-based indicators generally follow a repeatable pattern. Volatility surges, sentiment indicators reflect pessimism and price-based measures become oversold.
As the corrective phase wanes, the pendulum...
https://mailchi.mp/0...gnal-for-stocks
#5
dTraderB
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Posted 15 October 2023 - 03:54 PM
HOUSING STARTS could be much lower...and - most importantly - a jittery unstable MidEast on the verge of military escalation:
On the Radar Next Week
Earnings from Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT), United Airlines (UAL), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), American Airlines Group (AAL), and many more.
September retail sales
Fed speeches
September housing starts
https://stockcharts....ate-3-v-96.html
On the Radar Next Week
Earnings from Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT), United Airlines (UAL), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), American Airlines Group (AAL), and many more.
September retail sales
Fed speeches
September housing starts
https://stockcharts....ate-3-v-96.html
#6
dTraderB
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#7
dTraderB
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Posted 15 October 2023 - 03:59 PM
So far lots of threats, bluster etc... and now this
IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: IRAN WILL NOT REMAIN AN OBSERVER IN THIS SITUATION AND HAS INFORMED ISRAEL VIA ITS ALLIES IF ITS CRIMES IN GAZA CONTINUE TOMORROW WILL BE TOO LATE - AL JAZEERA.
IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: IRAN WILL NOT REMAIN AN OBSERVER IN THIS SITUATION AND HAS INFORMED ISRAEL VIA ITS ALLIES IF ITS CRIMES IN GAZA CONTINUE TOMORROW WILL BE TOO LATE - AL JAZEERA.
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 15 October 2023 - 04:01 PM
Choi says it is near his RUG PULL:
James Choi (@JC_Investment) posted at 9:42 AM on Thu, Oct 12, 2023:
1. Long rates have topped ✅️
2. Stocks have bottomed ✅️
3. Retails 'ARE' piling in now ✅️
4. Greed 'IS' rising now ✅️
5. Rug Pull
https://t.co/UQlRM753Qd
James Choi (@JC_Investment) posted at 9:42 AM on Thu, Oct 12, 2023:
1. Long rates have topped ✅️
2. Stocks have bottomed ✅️
3. Retails 'ARE' piling in now ✅️
4. Greed 'IS' rising now ✅️
5. Rug Pull
https://t.co/UQlRM753Qd
#9
dTraderB
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Posted 15 October 2023 - 04:10 PM
My FF is lower, possibly below ES 4200... then rally.
Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 11:12 AM on Sat, Oct 14, 2023:
After 5 red weeks, #ES_F has put in its 1st green week; caused by reclaiming its bull market trendline from Oct 2022 at 4320. Now, bulls must hold
Plan: 4345, 4320-25=support. As long as 4320 lowest holds the next leg targets 4400, dip, 4477. 4320 fails, new lows to 4230 likely https://t.co/890SYIZdTg
Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 11:12 AM on Sat, Oct 14, 2023:
After 5 red weeks, #ES_F has put in its 1st green week; caused by reclaiming its bull market trendline from Oct 2022 at 4320. Now, bulls must hold
Plan: 4345, 4320-25=support. As long as 4320 lowest holds the next leg targets 4400, dip, 4477. 4320 fails, new lows to 4230 likely https://t.co/890SYIZdTg
#10
dTraderB
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Posted 16 October 2023 - 06:50 AM
"...But here is an index that represents the median stock, closing last week at the lowest levels in a year.
image
If you want to be a subpar investor, then own the median stock.
It's simple.
The median stock, according to the Value Line Geometric Index, has made zero progress in 25 years.
So if you're focused on the median stock, then of course you think it's a bear market.
But when you understand how the best strategies own more of the best stocks and little or none of the worst stocks, you'll quickly see how this is just a perfectly normal bull market.
Is it one of the strongest Year 1s of a bull market? No, it's actually one of the worst Year 1s on record. But a weaker bull market doesn't necessarily make it a bear market.
Also, I encourage you to go back and look. There's no evidence that a weaker Year 1 of a bull has any impact on the performance of Year 2.
So at this point, it doesn't even matter.
We want to look forward. And so we want to own the best names as we get ready for the strongest time of the year to own equities"
-- JC PARETS
image
If you want to be a subpar investor, then own the median stock.
It's simple.
The median stock, according to the Value Line Geometric Index, has made zero progress in 25 years.
So if you're focused on the median stock, then of course you think it's a bear market.
But when you understand how the best strategies own more of the best stocks and little or none of the worst stocks, you'll quickly see how this is just a perfectly normal bull market.
Is it one of the strongest Year 1s of a bull market? No, it's actually one of the worst Year 1s on record. But a weaker bull market doesn't necessarily make it a bear market.
Also, I encourage you to go back and look. There's no evidence that a weaker Year 1 of a bull has any impact on the performance of Year 2.
So at this point, it doesn't even matter.
We want to look forward. And so we want to own the best names as we get ready for the strongest time of the year to own equities"
-- JC PARETS
