This isn't a surgical tool, but if you have other set-ups to pick a low, this is supportive. Pick your spot.
Relative VIX Bullish
Started by
OEXCHAOS
, Oct 20 2023 12:24 PM
13 replies to this topic
#1
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 20 October 2023 - 12:24 PM
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#2
fib_1618
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Posted 20 October 2023 - 12:46 PM
A different, longer term viewpoint: https://tinyurl.com/ypxorysz
Also keep in mind that as liquidity levels continue to be drained from the system, this can create increasing chaotic behavior.
Fib
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#3
slupert
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Posted 20 October 2023 - 04:16 PM
A different, longer term viewpoint: https://tinyurl.com/ypxorysz
Also keep in mind that as liquidity levels continue to be drained from the system, this can create increasing chaotic behavior.
Fib
i Just bought som TLT, its time to go the othher way.
#4
slupert
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Posted 20 October 2023 - 04:17 PM
A different, longer term viewpoint: https://tinyurl.com/ypxorysz
Also keep in mind that as liquidity levels continue to be drained from the system, this can create increasing chaotic behavior.
Fib
Still n UTG, and will b for quite awhlle
Edited by slupert, 20 October 2023 - 04:18 PM.
#5
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 21 October 2023 - 10:10 AM
Since January 2021, Inflation has reduced value of money by 18.63%.
Since January 2021, SPX has gone up 14.6%.
So bullish makes sense for next move in stocks to catch up with inflation.
In reality, SPX should be up 24% from January 2021 to account for federal income tax,
and more if you live in a state with state income tax.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#6
K Wave
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Posted 21 October 2023 - 10:33 AM
i Just bought som TLT, its time to go the othher way.
5.2 target on 10 year is still out there, and possible it could even overshoot some, so you might be a tad early....
When you put it in log mode, you can really see the massive relative scale of this increase compared to all others from the last 40 years.
Folks that think this is normal, and will not be a problem...pretty funny.
Edited by K Wave, 21 October 2023 - 10:33 AM.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#7
K Wave
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Posted 21 October 2023 - 10:35 AM
Flip that 10 year chart upside down, and stock market is probably right around 1.7 level with the lag effect on the weaker indexes, and perhaps around 1.4 on the stronger ones.
Edited by K Wave, 21 October 2023 - 10:36 AM.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#8
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 21 October 2023 - 10:37 AM
Interest rates can not bifurcate much from inflation rate. But yes, higher rates are a double whammy when debts are at record levels.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#9
K Wave
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Posted 21 October 2023 - 10:39 AM
Here is REIT index monthly at the inverted "1.7 level"
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#10
K Wave
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Posted 21 October 2023 - 10:40 AM
just waiting for POR, when everyone can finally see it.....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
