10 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the window in which the risk is highest for a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA stretches from noon on Wednesday November the 1st through noon on Friday November 3rd with the peak in risk on Thursday November the 2nd.

 

Last week, the Monday risk window looked like a low for a couple of days, but it turned out to just be a short pause in the downtrend, a.k.a. a dud.  The jury is still out on the Friday the 27th through Monday the 30th risk window.  Since Monday the 30th didn't make the team when I updated the roster for the risk windows this week, I don't hold out much hope for this coming Monday's time at bat.  

 

 

This past Tuesday when it still looked like Monday's risk window might hold, I posted a response to a thread started by Don saying that the odds would seem to favor a bounce.  Well, my cracked crystal ball let me down once again since my bounce forecast rotted on the vine the very next day when the down trend resumed.  Sentiment continues to look like a bounce is imminent, but no one seems to have told the trend.  I suppose it will be up to J. Powell on Wednesday or positive developments in the war(s) to get a bounce started.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[K Wave]

Looking at all the time frames on Continuous SP, 6 hour has perhaps the best fit right now

 

I think this is a decent possibility now that 4200 has been clearly busted....unless it turns into all out panic next week (which is not an impossibility)

 

But best guess is we bottom out for now Monday on the full moon turn, and then rally back up to back test that super important 4200 area, before bear starts to really tear things up.

 

Edited by K Wave, 29 October 2023 - 09:10 AM.

[K Wave]

Would work pretty well with daily chart as well....last bounce at the 900, before the bear gets underway for real.

 

But again, if too much momo through that 900, it is not required that it bounce in this situation, although I do believe a last bounce is a reasonable scenario...but bear markets have a way of being surprisingly unreasonable

 

And at least somewhat likely they wont crash it before Apple reports on Thursday, so a bounce into that day, before they pull the rug completely, would certainly seem like a decent possibility.

 

 

 

 

 

[K Wave]

NYA on the other hand would likely on see the underside of the 900 on any bounce. (I actually expect it will be weaker than that due to the far more widespread rot there, although 15K a possibility)

 

And THAT should be VERY concerning to sleepwalking bulls....but they never see this stuff coming, so do not expect any difference this time around.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[K Wave]

I would likely be wrong back above SP 4200 for more than a brief moment..ALWAYS have to have plan B.

 

But Plan A still very fully operational at this juncture.

 

And again, further progress of Plan A is entirely dependent on Mega Caps, so action there over next 4-5 days is likely to reveal mucho.....

[linrom1]

I hate to say it, but it might be time to buy US bonds. I think this is like 1930s in Europe and capital will flow to US in panic. London looks like an army of invaders took it over(Turks at Constantinople) and this is no place to have global financial center.

[K Wave]

I hate to say it, but it might be time to buy US bonds. I think this is like 1930s in Europe and capital will flow to US in panic. London looks like an army of invaders took it over(Turks at Constantinople) and this is no place to have global financial center.

Same with New York City.

[Douglas]

KWave, my cracked crystal ball prognostication for the DJIA E-Wave is shown below which aligns well with your yellow zigzag lower.  The bounce I keep expecting would be the blue 2 wave up.  

My half baked potential targets for the end of the red C wave bear market in the DJIA are shown below depending of how bad it gets in the next year or so and just how pessimistic you want to be.   The first target is the A wave of the current large correction at about 30,000.  The second target is the 4 of previous degree at the 2020 low near 20,000.  The next really, really pessimistic, everything's hit the fan, crawl in the prepper bunker target is the 4 of the same degree somewhere near the 2009 low in the 6000 to 10,000 neighborhood.   Given the J. Powell/J. Yellen amalgamation's propensity to print butt loads of funny money at the first sign of stock market problems, it's hard to see how we could get to the lower targets.   Even the high target seems to be a stretch.  Also given the election next year in the US, money printing should really shift into high gear in the coming months which should pump up the market even more.  So  the targets below are unlikely at best, and probably just down right silly at worst, .

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[fib_1618]

Thank you for taking the time in marking up your Elliott count for us. I know from personal experience that it can take quite a bit of time and effort to do so as there is a lot to think about when applying correct Elliott labeling...the most important being the degree of trend that you're working with can make all the difference in the world when it comes to not only being on the right side of the market, but also having "the right look" of any price pattern sequence.

 

For those who aren't Elliott savvy...there are 3 hard and fast rules when applying an Elliott count that can not be broken:

 

1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of waves 1, 3, and 5 (impulsive or corrective...it doesn't matter)

3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1.

 

So if we focus on the area from end of May to mid June 2023 where you marked as wave "3", you have broken two rules there as this is not only the shortest wave sequence compared with waves "1" and "5", but the flat formation that started in mid June into early July overlaps your wave "1" from March. Because of this, the corrective "flat" can only be labeled as a "B" wave and not wave "4"

 

In any event, since the price sequences have corrections 80% of the time, it's highly difficult to label where you are unless you have some sort of momentum tool, like the RSI, to help you along the way. My suggestion is to apply a 13 day RSI to the daily chart (or 8 period RSI for an intraday chart) for better clarity of count. Also remember that both wave "3" and wave "A" set momentum "flags" from which waves "5" and "C" eventually diverge from so you can pinpoint reversals...and more importantly...if the correctional sequence has concluded or not. Your use of line form on the chart is perfect as it cleans up the mess of using bar or candlestick charting methods. Daily volume will also help, as well as, sentiment. I would also suggest that you mark up an index that is more broadly based in its make up...the SPX vs. the Dow or the NYA vs. SPX. The more you data you receive (larger baskets of issues), the better the workable count.

 

Above all else, since Elliott Wave analysis is strictly a psychological extension of herd thinking, the most important thing in working with this tool is to be emotionally unbiased when working this format...something of which is very hard to do due to our human frailty to be scooped up into every day thought, and why many fail in working with this analysis where you're taking a theory and attempting to make it a principle.

 

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 29 October 2023 - 03:51 PM.

[Douglas]

fib_1618, I should have noted in the intro to my count that I approach Elliott Wave a bit differently.  Elliott Wave is just an attempt at quantifying and predicting mass psychology.  A crowd generally behaves as expected, but occasionally doesn't, sometimes something or someone can influence a crowd to act in unexpected ways.  As a result I feel comfortable bending the so called unbreakable rules published in tomes on the subject.  I know this is heresy, but crowds just don't always behave per the text book, and the Fed, for example, willing to print trillions of dollars of funny money, can bend investor behaviour in unpredictable ways.  2020 is a prime example where the Fed literally printed trillions of dollars to keep the stock market afloat and maybe the economy, but mostly the stock market.   There's no way in hades that the bear market in 2020 should have only lasted 27 days given the government lockdown shut the entire economy down, but it did.  The Fed/Treasury flooded the market with money radically affecting the stock market even today creating an unnatural monster bull market.

 

That all being said, what about some sort of flaky looking triangle in the B wave position as shown below instead?  Does that make you happier?  

 

 

I showed the flaky 3rd wave since sentiment as shown below, peaked right on schedule where I showed the 3rd wave, but I'm OK with the triangle if that keeps me a bit more in compliance with the unbreakable rules.   What do you think?  A flaky triangle or a flaky 3?

 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas