Jump to content



Photo

Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) and 20+ year treasury bond etf TLT


  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

#1 barbu

barbu

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 265 posts

Posted 31 October 2023 - 09:47 AM

Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX)  and 20+ year treasury bond etf TLT - Posted 14 August 2023

imho, the TLT low target zone is 87-81(86.68-81.05)

 

10/31/23

Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) - resistance 5.00-5.25%

 

8002daf12380Or4xU1m1.jpg

 

TLT

 

8002daf12516iZvaWfHJ.jpg

 



#2 MDurkin

MDurkin

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 638 posts

Posted 31 October 2023 - 09:59 AM

Nice call !



#3 MDurkin

MDurkin

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 638 posts

Posted 31 October 2023 - 12:15 PM

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 



#4 barbu

barbu

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 265 posts

Posted 31 October 2023 - 08:23 PM

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

Hi MDurkin

 

The web site i frequently visited, most of the friends are using TLT as a short term speculative play,  only a few friends claimed  for longer term investment, there is no way to verify their actual actions.
 

Fed's rate stance can influence the mass sentiments, spur speculative bets.  however, the rate guessing game is very boring, i roll the  treasury bills on its maturity till the Fed flips its tightening policy.  
the 10 year treasury rate has a resistance zone 5.00-5.25%, see how long it can stand, keep watching.
as far as the recession possibility, i have no idea, in a much longer term, imho, due to the laden debts, we may see a protracted recession.



#5 MDurkin

MDurkin

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 638 posts

Posted 31 October 2023 - 08:55 PM

 

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

Hi MDurkin

 

The web site i frequently visited, most of the friends are using TLT as a short term speculative play,  only a few friends claimed  for longer term investment, there is no way to verify their actual actions.
 

Fed's rate stance can influence the mass sentiments, spur speculative bets.  however, the rate guessing game is very boring, i roll the  treasury bills on its maturity till the Fed flips its tightening policy.  
the 10 year treasury rate has a resistance zone 5.00-5.25%, see how long it can stand, keep watching.
as far as the recession possibility, i have no idea, in a much longer term, imho, due to the laden debts, we may see a protracted recession.

 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.



#6 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,531 posts

Posted 31 October 2023 - 11:28 PM

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

 ALL depends on where FED is going with rates. 

Me thinks no more than 2 increases are in cards before FED runs out of courage. 

If there is a 25 basis point increase in December, I am thinking of loading up on 10 year bonds. 

If rates drop in future 2-5 year period, there will be significant capital gains in 10 year bonds.

If rates go up, get full money back in 10 years with 5% yield. I can live on that. 


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#7 MDurkin

MDurkin

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 638 posts

Posted 01 November 2023 - 12:13 AM

 

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

 ALL depends on where FED is going with rates. 

Me thinks no more than 2 increases are in cards before FED runs out of courage. 

If there is a 25 basis point increase in December, I am thinking of loading up on 10 year bonds. 

If rates drop in future 2-5 year period, there will be significant capital gains in 10 year bonds.

If rates go up, get full money back in 10 years with 5% yield. I can live on that. 

 

Sounds like a good plan... you don't mind if I go along for that ride...



#8 MDurkin

MDurkin

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 638 posts

Posted 01 November 2023 - 01:24 AM

 

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

 ALL depends on where FED is going with rates. 

Me thinks no more than 2 increases are in cards before FED runs out of courage. 

If there is a 25 basis point increase in December, I am thinking of loading up on 10 year bonds. 

If rates drop in future 2-5 year period, there will be significant capital gains in 10 year bonds.

If rates go up, get full money back in 10 years with 5% yield. I can live on that. 

 

Are you buying the new I bond at 5.27? The fixed rate at 1.30 is the highest since 5/07-10/07 6 month period.



#9 slupert

slupert

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,825 posts

Posted 01 November 2023 - 06:47 AM

recession,by end of 1st quarter of next year.