8 replies to this topic

[barbu]

Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX)  and 20+ year treasury bond etf TLT - Posted 14 August 2023

imho, the TLT low target zone is 87-81(86.68-81.05)

 

10/31/23

Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) - resistance 5.00-5.25%

 

 

TLT

 

 

[MDurkin]

Nice call !

[MDurkin]

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

[barbu]

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

Hi MDurkin

 

The web site i frequently visited, most of the friends are using TLT as a short term speculative play,  only a few friends claimed  for longer term investment, there is no way to verify their actual actions.
 

Fed's rate stance can influence the mass sentiments, spur speculative bets.  however, the rate guessing game is very boring, i roll the  treasury bills on its maturity till the Fed flips its tightening policy.  
the 10 year treasury rate has a resistance zone 5.00-5.25%, see how long it can stand, keep watching.
as far as the recession possibility, i have no idea, in a much longer term, imho, due to the laden debts, we may see a protracted recession.

[MDurkin]

 

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

Hi MDurkin

 

The web site i frequently visited, most of the friends are using TLT as a short term speculative play,  only a few friends claimed  for longer term investment, there is no way to verify their actual actions.
 

Fed's rate stance can influence the mass sentiments, spur speculative bets.  however, the rate guessing game is very boring, i roll the  treasury bills on its maturity till the Fed flips its tightening policy.  
the 10 year treasury rate has a resistance zone 5.00-5.25%, see how long it can stand, keep watching.
as far as the recession possibility, i have no idea, in a much longer term, imho, due to the laden debts, we may see a protracted recession.

 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

[pdx5]

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

 ALL depends on where FED is going with rates. 

Me thinks no more than 2 increases are in cards before FED runs out of courage. 

If there is a 25 basis point increase in December, I am thinking of loading up on 10 year bonds. 

If rates drop in future 2-5 year period, there will be significant capital gains in 10 year bonds.

If rates go up, get full money back in 10 years with 5% yield. I can live on that. 

[MDurkin]

 

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

 ALL depends on where FED is going with rates. 

Me thinks no more than 2 increases are in cards before FED runs out of courage. 

If there is a 25 basis point increase in December, I am thinking of loading up on 10 year bonds. 

If rates drop in future 2-5 year period, there will be significant capital gains in 10 year bonds.

If rates go up, get full money back in 10 years with 5% yield. I can live on that. 

 

Sounds like a good plan... you don't mind if I go along for that ride...

[MDurkin]

 

So what are your thoughts on recession, do people run to TLT for safety ...? 

 

 ALL depends on where FED is going with rates. 

Me thinks no more than 2 increases are in cards before FED runs out of courage. 

If there is a 25 basis point increase in December, I am thinking of loading up on 10 year bonds. 

If rates drop in future 2-5 year period, there will be significant capital gains in 10 year bonds.

If rates go up, get full money back in 10 years with 5% yield. I can live on that. 

 

Are you buying the new I bond at 5.27? The fixed rate at 1.30 is the highest since 5/07-10/07 6 month period.

[slupert]

recession,by end of 1st quarter of next year.