6 replies to this topic

[andr99]

https://postimg.cc/ThmFKf03

 

charts speak better than words, it's semilogaritmic, the logaritmic scale being on axis y. As everybody can see the rise is following a linear path and it has been on it since 2008, 15 years ago.

What the f@@@ should happen now to make it derail from such a well established path ? Aliens landing on the Earth ? For sure nothing less than that because we are already having a war 

in Europe and another one in the middle east initiated by a bunch of ignorant camel breeders that call themselves hamas. Enjoy the bullish ride is my motto. By the way, the nasdaq doesn't need to

touch again the rising trend line as one time is enough and it was last year in September.  

Edited by andr99, 01 November 2023 - 08:39 AM.

[redfoliage2]

This chart is informative, and it says the lower trend line likely to be tested next year......................

[andr99]

This chart is informative, and it says the lower trend line likely to be tested next year......................

 

I doubt it will, because normally one touch is enough. If you want my opinion, we're going to rise from here to new highs 

Edited by andr99, 01 November 2023 - 09:38 AM.

[andr99]

https://postimg.cc/TpR5GGfF

 

above I have charted the nasdaq weekly with its macd. From 2003 to 2016 the macd remained inside a horizontal channel between 0 and 100, except for a brief break down in 2008-2009, the year of 

the banking crisis. Such a long lasting channel accompanied the rise of the nasdaq along the years. What I'm expecting is a similar behavior now with the weekly macd moving sideways inside one of the 

two channels I drew. Please notice how easy it was to call the market bottom in September of last year. The macd was forming a formidable divergence, that there was no chance the bottom wasn't in. 

Obviously the macd is an indicator that is much more useful when it reaches extreme values, much less when it is in no man's land. But intuition must have a part in this game and given that that rising trend 

line of the nasdaq has all the chances to work for more years to come, a horizontal macd channel like we had a few years ago should be in the cards, I believe. That is my opinion.  

Edited by andr99, 01 November 2023 - 01:08 PM.

[andr99]

so far so good for the bottom call, but the real match will be played when the nasdaq gets to 13400-13500. I am convinced it will break upside 

Edited by andr99, 01 November 2023 - 03:14 PM.

[andr99]

I will go often off topics, there will be many digressions by me, but I also declare clearly and simply my idea of market path. Just to say.  

Edited by andr99, 01 November 2023 - 03:43 PM.

[steadyquest]

Here's QQQ (adjusted for dividends) back to the dot com crash.  The price channels are a subjective opinion.  I think the rally could carry up to the third rail and/or the ATH, but I can't guess what will follow.  Financial disparity in the US could force further covid-style cash handouts to curb civil unrest, and such stimulus would likely boost the m\arkets - but what nature of crisis would provide the political cover?

 

Depending on how the line is drawn, the bear might have just gotten his nose under the big tent last month.  If so, maybe after the year-end rally he can wiggle the rest of himself under there and cause some serious havoc.