According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration in the trend of the DJIA are Tuesday November the 7th and a window stretching from noon on Thursday November 9th through Friday November 10th.
Last week the noon on Wednesday through noon on Friday risk window caught one heck of a wave three-like acceleration event with the DJIA soaring more than a thousand points with two gaps. So bull's-eye for the system.
A few weeks ago I noted that the British Pound was moving around between two 38% retracement levels and would trend when it broke out. Well this week it broke through the top of the range and appears to be heading higher.
Last week I said that sentiment was calling for a stock market bounce and that Powell might be a catalyst for it, and boy did we get one when Powell stepped up to the podium Wednesday and went full on Arthur Burns pausing the shooting before the war is over. His cease fire announcement in the war on inflation drove the dollar lower which will fuel import inflation, the stock market higher which will stimulate wealth effect spending which is inflationary and drove rates lower which will pump up borrowing driving demand increasing inflationary pressures. Giving ground on three fronts is not exactly the Sun Tzu way to beat an enemy.
I also posted my EWave count last week which elicited a rare comment and critique which I appreciated. I should note that my current bearish count will probably need to be thrown in the trash can if this rally exceeds DJIA 35,000 which could happen in just a few days at the current rate of ascent.
Regards,
Douglas
