86 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

ES 4365 hedge long

[12SPX]

Looks like were gonna have a fun night session as were approaching my sell levels here....

[dTraderB]

Powell dishes out cold reality check

Asian markets are set to end the week with a bump on Friday, after Fed chief Jerome Powell the day before warned that U.S. interest rates may need to rise further to win the war on inflation.



Powell's remarks were a swift reality check for those who had become increasingly convinced that the Fed's tightening campaign was over - the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had gone as low as 4.4750% late in the Asian session on Thursday, but closed the U.S. day at 4.63%.



The three main U.S. equity indices quickly sank, and ended between 0.7% and 1% lower on the day. If Asian and emerging stocks follow Wall Street's lead, they will close the week in the red.

[jacek]

"T-Bond prices fell on Nov. 9, 2023, on news of an auction of $24 billion in new 30-year T-Bonds that did not go very well.  The setup for this drop was already there, based on the recent run up in bond prices, which has also affected the corporate bond market

 

When the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator gets up to an overbought level, that can sometimes be a signal of strong initiation of a new uptrend, and a promise of more buying to come.  But it does not seem to work that way for this McClellan Oscillator for corporate bonds.  Here, the message of a high reading is more uniformly one of an overbought condition that needs to be addressed by a pause or a pullback.

The implication now is that corporate bonds and T-Bonds should pull back in price.."

 

https://www.mcoscill...r/weekly_chart/

Edited by jacek, 09 November 2023 - 09:14 PM.

[dTraderB]

Good ASIAN & EURO sessions.
I think markets do a dead-cat bounce & then drop again

Looks like were gonna have a fun night session as were approaching my sell levels here....

[dTraderB]

Thursday was my best NQ daytrading day in 2023. Also an overall top 5 day in 2023. Nice big swings - up & then down. Will add another hedge long ... also close a few SHORTS if markets drop into the weekend

[dTraderB]

Powell pushback puts cloud 9 beyond reach

A slightly exaggerated market reaction to Fed chair Jerome Powell's pushback against early U.S. interest rate cuts was enough to spoil the weekend and keep the S&P500 from extending an eighth straight daily gain.

Powell's set-piece on Thursday clearly leaned more hawkish than investors had hoped - refusing to rule out another rate hike and saying the central bank was not yet confident its policy stance was restrictive enough to get inflation back to the 2% target.



"If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so," Powell cautioned a market still betting both that rate hikes are done and that three cuts are coming next year, starting as soon as June.

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:
Some U.S. government offices observe early Veterans Day holiday, but stock exchanges open
University of Michigan November U.S. consumer survey
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speak; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank boss Joachim Nagel both speak
EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council budget meeting

Powell pushback puts cloud 9 beyond reach

A slightly exaggerated market reaction to Fed chair Jerome Powell's pushback against early U.S. interest rate cuts was enough to spoil the weekend and keep the S&P500 from extending an eighth straight daily gain.

Powell's set-piece on Thursday clearly leaned more hawkish than investors had hoped - refusing to rule out another rate hike and saying the central bank was not yet confident its policy stance was restrictive enough to get inflation back to the 2% target.



"If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so," Powell cautioned a market still betting both that rate hikes are done and that three cuts are coming next year, starting as soon as June.

-- REUTERS

[dTraderB]

Got to bounce now & remain above zero .. or else rapid decline:
https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

[12SPX]

Well that was a fun, while I slept my ndx trade was bought back for a nice fat profit of 10 points at 15210.  Was glad at day 8 of the rally I really added to it as the odds pointed some kind of correction coming lol!!  I don't think the correction is near done yet though so with this pop up I'm starting a new short build 15250.  Unfortunately my ES trade is still on but that's okay we'll see how the day goes.  I'm flying today so we'll see how it goes overall but think we need a little more downside here to get a nice oversold condition as the bond market figures out where its going but I'm pretty sure I said a while ago it may float between 4.50 and 5.00%, likely till year end so the market should "grind" up not go straight up as the slowdown is gaining steam....