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Backing and Filling is Complete...

Bear Market Continues

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#1 fib_1618

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Posted 09 November 2023 - 11:19 PM

...now it's up to the buyers to see what kind of conviction they have to build on the recent short covering rally of the 2nd and 3rd.

 

A word of caution for all...we now have the potential of many Sigh Of the Bear pattern structures developing again both externally and internally...the most we've seen since the bear market kick off back in January of 2022. The simple focal point for all is to watch how prices interact with their respective 200 day EMA''s...the longer term "trendline" of bull support and bear resistance. Right now, the NASDAQ, NDX and large caps continue to be buoyant above this same indicator, while the rest of the market is having a tough time getting back above it and staying there. If current liquidity continues to be drained from the system by further interest rate increases, or even if rates stays the same, this lack of underlying fuel needed for price trend development will cause "bid" prices to weaken which forces "asks" (price spreads) to widen in this same direction of the bear market default.

 

In any event, there currently seems to be enough buoyancy to carry prices through November OPEX, but the bulls better start bellying up to the bar sooner than later or this whole thing is going to fail miserably and we'll likely meet the still open downside price targets that were given from the middle of August.

 

Fib


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#2 Waver

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Posted 10 November 2023 - 07:24 AM

The breadth thrust doesnt give the benefit to the Bulls here?

Edited by Waver, 10 November 2023 - 07:24 AM.


#3 fib_1618

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Posted 10 November 2023 - 08:29 AM

The breadth thrust doesn't give the benefit to the Bulls here?

 

It all depends on the directional flow of the advance/decline line itself. Right now, that gauge of money flow is still trending to the downside.

 

There is always context when dealing with breadth dynamics...and pretty much everything else that would be considered "technical".

 

Fib

 

https://tinyurl.com/yroroo8r

 

 

nyad110923.png


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#4 fib_1618

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Posted 10 November 2023 - 09:02 AM

Here's the NASDAQ A/D line chart which is near its all time lows at this time.

 

Bottom line: the bulls still have quite a bit of work in front of them if they're going to be able to turn this around from bear to bull. Notice also the developing double top Sign Of the Bear structures in the price charts of the NYA and COMPQ, as well as, the "trend divergence" in the NYAD line compared with the mid October highs.

 

Fib

 

https://tinyurl.com/yktjsxfm

 

 

naad110923.png

 

 

 

 


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#5 12SPX

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Posted 10 November 2023 - 10:29 AM

But does it matter when you have the magnificent 7 holding it all up lol!!  I'm kidding of course and find it ridiculous that they have that much of an effect lol!! 



#6 fib_1618

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Posted 10 November 2023 - 12:43 PM

But does it matter when you have the magnificent 7 holding it all up lol!!  I'm kidding of course and find it ridiculous that they have that much of an effect lol!! 

 

As you know, weighted index components will always have an advantage to the market maker as a cover of what is truly going on. The beauty of the A/D line, therefore, is that you can know, on a cursory basis, the true directional flow of prices...from which divergences can keep you on the right side of the trend without any guess work or supposition.

 

Fib


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#7 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 10 November 2023 - 04:42 PM

I look at variety of other indicators as well, such as Put/Call Ratios,  PE in relation to home sales, car sales, and GDP.   Currently we are not overvalued and Put Call is not signaling a decline, money is not flowing from S&P into DJIA so breadth is not too narrow but not really wide enough.   The only thing that is real positive is the Semiconductors looks like it is picking up so I think we are on the start of a new Bull Run.



#8 Waver

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Posted 11 November 2023 - 03:10 PM

Fib - taking out October’s in the SP500 and Nasdaq, SOB is now gone?

I am with qqqqtrdr - seems like the market is running up now. To me it looks like it can go parabolic (at least the Nasdaq 100 looks that way).

#9 fib_1618

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Posted 12 November 2023 - 03:48 PM

Fib - taking out October’s in the SP500 and Nasdaq, SOB is now gone?

I am with qqqqtrdr - seems like the market is running up now. To me it looks like it can go parabolic (at least the Nasdaq 100 looks that way).

 

More on the S.O.B. pattern structure and its implications can be found here: https://tinyurl.com/yleughhe

 

You can, of course, trade your own market opinion...I just provide information. But, to be sure, the NASDAQ 100 currently enjoys the best money flow pattern of all of the major market indexes at this time...likely due to all of the excitement of artificial intelligence. But I do remember the same kind of talk going into the 2000 top as well with internet stocks as a whole, parabolic and all, and we all know what happened after that.

 

Again...just a word of caution, nothing more.

 

Fib

 

https://tinyurl.com/tyw7n3t9

 

ndxad111023.png


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#10 Waver

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Posted 22 November 2023 - 08:13 AM

Fib- still in the bear camp?





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