BULLISH: "MOOD change, ANIMAL SPIRITS stirring" - but...
Posted 12 November 2023 - 04:46 PM
No, but they risk a soft to medium LANDING if the resume rate hikes. They will not, they will try to scare the markets but will fail.
However, extreme bullishness & unstable MIDEAST, GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION can quicjle reverse this rally.
My FF is pullback or basing, rally, another 3 to 5% sharp reversal down, then SANTA CLAUS RALLY.
This assumes no major geopolitical events that can affect the market, AND THE FED does mot hike rates.
Good chart here from CALLUM:
Posted 12 November 2023 - 04:58 PM
Good steady rally in HK & CHINA but I expected more. STEADY TLT market.
Good JPY & CRUDE trades.
Losses in small SPY, QQQ, AMZN, AAPL, pisitions.
Posted 12 November 2023 - 08:27 PM
WILL OPEN NQ HEDGE LONG BELOW 15450
Posted 13 November 2023 - 04:43 AM
The granddaddy of breadth thrusts has triggered on the NYSE
Since 1950, the signal has had a perfect track record of gains across most sectors
Before 1950, there were some failures in the 1930s
The granddaddy of thrusts has triggered
Everyone (well, "everyone") will be talking about thrusts from the past week. These have become a more and more popular topic over the past ten years, leading knee-jerk contrarians to determine that they are no longer effective because what everyone knows isn't worth knowing.
Fair enough, but we've seen limited evidence that their efficacy has diminished. I say "limited" and not "no" because various thrusts did give false signals during 2022. Whether that's because it's just one of those things - nothing works 100% of the time - or because the market structure has changed is impossible to know. All we know is that if they continue to give more false signals than they have in the past, then we have reason to believe something has changed, whatever that something is, and we should weigh them less aggressively.
The gold standard of breadth thrusts has become the Zweigh Breadth Thrust from well-respected late analyst and money manager Martin Zweig. A 10-day exponential moving average of the NYSE Advance-Decline figure must cycle from below 40% to above 61.5% within ten sessions.
Tomorrow, we'll see how these Thrusts have been spread out among sectors and smaller stocks, which has preceded compelling bullish environments over the past 70 years.
Across all stocks traded on the NYSE, the traditional Zweig Breadth Thrust just triggered after several very near misses since the 2021 peak."
Posted 13 November 2023 - 06:02 AM
Posted 13 November 2023 - 06:26 AM
However, the Fed focus this week was likely as much on the October consumer price inflation report on Tuesday and the retail sales data on Wednesday for guidance. Prices are expected to have remained sticky last month, while high street sales slowed.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
October Feberal Budget, New York Fed's Oct inflation expectations survey
Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks; Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann speaks
U.S. corporate earnings: Tyson Foods, Henry Schein
U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills
Posted 13 November 2023 - 06:31 AM
When the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator gets up to an overbought level, that can sometimes be a signal of strong initiation of a new uptrend, and a promise of more buying to come. But it does not seem to work that way for this McClellan Oscillator for corporate bonds. Here, the message of a high reading is more uniformly one of an overbought condition that needs to be addressed by a pause or a pullback.
Here is where I traditionally remind readers that overbought is a "condition", and not a "signal". An overbought or oversold condition does not have to matter right away just because we notice it. But they do tend to matter eventually. The implication now is that corporate bonds and T-Bonds should pull back in price."
Edited by dTraderB, 13 November 2023 - 06:32 AM.
Posted 13 November 2023 - 10:10 AM
Edited by redfoliage2, 13 November 2023 - 10:18 AM.
Posted 13 November 2023 - 10:22 AM
Edited by redfoliage2, 13 November 2023 - 10:24 AM.
Posted 13 November 2023 - 10:47 AM
Edited by redfoliage2, 13 November 2023 - 10:51 AM.