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Risk Windows for the Week of November 20th & Gobble, Gobble

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 18 November 2023 - 01:19 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday November 20th and a window stretching from Wednesday afternoon through Friday the 24th.  In other words, about half the whole danged trading week, pretty worthless I know, but it is what it is.   


Last week's Monday the 13th risk window was clearly part of a larger risk window stretching from a risk window the previous week catching an important low.  The Thursday risk window last week  also caught a little low of some sort the importance of which will depend on the action during the Monday the 20th risk window.




The Nasty AD line which I showed and decried last week is still continuing its diverging ways (see plot below).  If things really are hunky dory, then the innards of the Nasty need to get in step with the few hot stocks leading the index higher.




If the current roaring rally in the DJIA gains any more altitude, there's a pretty good chance that my current EWave count is crap, surprise, surprise.  At least, so far, the current rally appears to be in three parts.  If it evolves into five parts and crosses my red Rubicon line shown below, I'll have to eat crow and dust off my alternate which I show, just in case, below.  It permits the "TOP" to be taken out in a higher wave.  (My current beleaguered count shows as complete with the large C wave down underway.  A break up through the red line will put the final nail in my current count's coffin.)




Lasty, I suppose during next week's Thanksgiving festivities, we all need to give a special nod to the Fed whose gobble, gobbling of debt to print funny money flooding the well-healed with dosh and sub-inflation interest rates are still kiting the stock market ever higher despite wars, pestilence, threat of recession and clearly brainless leaders.  How can you not be thankful for such a bounty, the bill for which is being kicked down the road to be paid in full by our kids and grandkids, thank you very much.