168 replies to this topic

[hhh]

 

So far every dip got bought since the market started working on digesting the big gains in November.  It has been six trading days on this consolidation at high.  My near term outlook - we are more likely to see SPX above 4600, not below 4500  ............................ 

It's just because of too much money in the MM accounts waiting for an entrance into stocks with a seasonality in favor of bulls ..........................

 

But when that money in the MM account goes to the seller of the stocks after the buyers' entrance(s), the seller now has the cash. Where is he putting it and how is the situation now different from before the transaction happened? The whole "money on the sidelines" argument doesn't hold up under scrutiny because the money just "is" and so are the shares; they just change ownership.

[redfoliage2]

 

 

So far every dip got bought since the market started working on digesting the big gains in November.  It has been six trading days on this consolidation at high.  My near term outlook - we are more likely to see SPX above 4600, not below 4500  ............................ 

It's just because of too much money in the MM accounts waiting for an entrance into stocks with a seasonality in favor of bulls ..........................

 

But when that money in the MM account goes to the seller of the stocks after the buyers' entrance(s), the seller now has the cash. Where is he putting it and how is the situation now different from before the transaction happened? The whole "money on the sidelines" argument doesn't hold up under scrutiny because the money just "is" and so are the shares; they just change ownership.

 

Unlike hedgies people with big money are more inclined to invest, not shorting.  Believe or not ......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 December 2023 - 12:33 PM.

[hhh]

Sorry, I don't understand your reply. Reluctant sellers vs. eager buyers certainly results in higher prices to enable transactions to occur, but in the end, someone has the money and someone has the shares, just like before.

[dTraderB]

ADDED 5 SPY PUTS! FINALLY, GOT FILLED.

NQ HEDGE LONG BUY LIMIT 15080

Close 1 NQ HEDGE LONG 16010

Close 4576.5

ES HEDGE LONG 4565

Closed Es hedge long 4578.5

NQ HEDGE LONG 15975

NQ HEDGE LONG LIMIT BUY ORDER @ 15980

ES 4566 HEDGE LONF

NQ HEDGE LONG 16115

Closedd ES HEDGE LONG 4593

EDIT: FLAT HEDGES

will reopen both ES & NQ lower

[redfoliage2]

So far every dip got bought since the market started working on digesting the big gains in November.  It has been six trading days on this consolidation at high.  My near term outlook - we are more likely to see SPX above 4600, not below 4500  ............................ 

 

Sorry, I don't understand your reply. Reluctant sellers vs. eager buyers certainly results in higher prices to enable transactions to occur, but in the end, someone has the money and someone has the shares, just like before.

Simply, it's a bid and ask game - the price goes higher due to buyers willing to pay a higher price for a reason.................

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 December 2023 - 12:55 PM.

[hhh]

That I agree with, but I think the "money on the sidelines" talk is misguided. Price is set at the margin depending on the wills of the participants, not according to how much money is in MM funds.

[12SPX]

Getting really interesting, average short 15985, 4528....

[12SPX]

And now adding a little more to get my short average up to 15995...

[dTraderB]

2 BRENT LONG 80.10
79.70
WILL ADD BELOW 79.05

[12SPX]

Wow now that was a major pop in option prices this is making things really interesting.....