168 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

"Slow consolidation day continues in #ES_F as we base build following last weeks run to 4580 target, as micro dips keep getting bought. ~4554 was support today, holding so far"

ES in the CHOP ZONE during most of US session.

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 2:20 PM on Mon, Nov 27, 2023:
Chop session underway and we are finally coming into today's ~4572 1st target in #ES_F after 4 hours. Lock in partials now if long. 4554-4580=remains the multiday chop zone to setup the next trend leg.

4580 next if ES wants (breakout to 4600+). 4554, 4542 (sell trigger)=supports
(https://x.com/AdamMa...5150512136?s=03)

[redfoliage2]

 

In starting the last week of the month the market is moving in range-bound as pops got sold and dips bought.  I see the market is likely at a ST top  ........................

As the market breadth top has been formed the price should follow soon  ...............

 

Whatever a LT number they would like to pull out of the hat traders are mindful of a ST drawdown.  At this juncture I'd not hold any longs overnight  .............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 November 2023 - 02:31 PM.

[dTraderB]

"Low volatility across major asset classes
Volatility across major asset classes is low - implied volatility on Wall Street is at its lowest in almost four years, global currency implied vol is the lowest since early last year, and U.S. bond vol is at a two-month low.

Asian markets are lacking firm direction either way, but bulls will be hoping the combination of a weaker dollar, lower U.S. bond yields and softer oil prices on Monday will provide the impetus for a more positive session on Tuesday." Reuters

[dTraderB]

"Chinas shadow financial system is creaking under increasing amounts of bad debt
Chinese authorities have launched a criminal investigation into Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, one of the country's biggest shadow lenders, days after it told investors it was severely insolvent. The firm blamed internal management [running] wild for its problems, which is one of the rarer corporate excuses youre ever likely to hear.

Shadow banks emerged in China after the global financial crisis in 2007 to satisfy the countrys ravenous appetite for credit. But theyre largely unregulated and are therefore not subject to the same risk, liquidity, and capital restrictions as traditional banks. The sector is now worth ~$2.9T.

So, whats the problem? During the good times (aka pre-COVID), nothing. Chinas shadow banking sector helped facilitate huge government investments in infrastructure that would otherwise be uneconomical.

But right now, Chinas economic fortunes are not so good:

Chinese debt (private + government debt) reached a dizzying 280% of GDP back in May (and the real figure is likely higher)

Recent forecasts suggest the economy will probably meet its 5% growth target but will slow in 2024 (and the real figures are likely lower), and

Foreign investment outflows have already exceeded $100 billion this year, which will further depress growth next year."

[dTraderB]

Dollar index falls to lowest since August
YIELDS also falling... BULLISH COMBINATION.

"Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:
U.S. Nov consumer confidence, Richmond Fed Nov business survey, Dallas Fed Nov service sector survey, Sept house prices
U.S. Treasury sells 7-year notes, 12-month bills
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee all speak; European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde and ECB chief economist Philip Lane both speak; Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel both speak
U.S. corporate earnings: Workday, Hewlett Packard, NetApp, Crowdstrike, Splunk, Alvotech, Pinduoduo, Uxin, Canaan, Elbit, Citi Trends, Fluence Energy, Nano-X Imaging, Safe-T, Leslie's
-- REUTERS

[dTraderB]

Beware! FED speakers run amok...
Econ Calendar Tues 11/28/23
FED SPEAKERS

Austan Goolsbee Speaks
10:00 AM ET

Christopher Waller Speaks
10:05 AM ET

Michelle Bowman Speaks
10:45 AM ET

Michael Barr Speaks
1:05 PM ET

Michael Barr Speaks
3:30 PM ET

[dTraderB]

NQ HEDGE LONG 15948.5

HOLDING 2 NQ 1 ES

Will add beliw ES 4530 & NQ 15830

Net SHORT US, LONG A50 & HSI INDEX & STOCKS. Opening & closing HEDGE LONGS - daytrading hedge longs, but want to add more SHORTS above ES 4580 before any pullback.
LONG TLT, UVXY CALLS, LONG CRUDE. Small NDVA LONG, QID LONG, small PUT positions in tech stocks - AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL.
Need net 0.83% return during next few days for a profitable November.

[dTraderB]

Will add A50 & HSI LONGS below 11650 & 17300

Dull markets for most this week but should quickly become more active

[dTraderB]

Closed 15975

NQ HEDGE LONG 15948.5

HOLDING 2 NQ 1 ES

Will add beliw ES 4530 & NQ 15830

Net SHORT US, LONG A50 & HSI INDEX & STOCKS. Opening & closing HEDGE LONGS - daytrading hedge longs, but want to add more SHORTS above ES 4580 before any pullback.
LONG TLT, UVXY CALLS, LONG CRUDE. Small NDVA LONG, QID LONG, small PUT positions in tech stocks - AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL.
Need net 0.83% return during next few days for a profitable November.

[12SPX]

Been great intraday trading but loving this pop adding to my ES and NDX short, got my nice short average at 4500 and 15900.  Would love to see the 10-year fill that gap at 4.33%.  Saw a report out that the CBOE volatility index hit its lowest level ever, maybe a little to much confidence going don't you think lol!!