According to my risk summation system, the window this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA stretches from about noon on Monday December 4th till about noon on Wednesday December 6th with the highest risk on Tuesday the 5th.
Last week the Monday the 27th risk window saw the low for the week. The end of the week noon Thursday thru Friday risk window saw an acceleration of the up trend and maybe a top of some sort at the very end of the week depending on the action on Monday the 4th. With the DJIA now rising just about parabolically, some sort of blow off top, at least short term, seems likely in fairly short order given the rate of ascent.
As I speculated might happen in last week's post, my primary EWave count was blabbered to near death this past week by all the stumping, pumping Fed heads doing their best for Wall Street. To finally snuff this count will require a close above the "TOP" at about 36800, but that now seems just a matter of time. My old alternate, now primary count, below which I posted a week or so ago assumes the "B" wave is not complete and will make new highs. The target I show below for the end of the "B" wave assumes that "C" roughly equals "a" at about 38,300 which isn't necessary, but I am a sucker for symmetry. Time wise, "a" only took a couple of months, so maybe "B" will finish sometime in late January or February of 2024. Given the current rate of ascent, it won't take long to reach my 38,3k target.
My new alternate count assumes that, unbeknownst to me, the bear has been secretly dead since late September 2022 ruthlessly smothered under a mountain of funny money, Powell is indeed a miracle worker and a new and glorious impulse wave up is underway with the 3rd wave up in progress to stratospheric new heights. The fly in the ointment for this giddy count is that this impulse up is largely driven by just the magnificent seven stocks, nobody has told the great masses of small stocks that it's safe to come out of the bunker as can be seen by the Russell 2000 ETF and the small stock AD line below. Maybe all you need is seven on the first roll just like in dice, but if your having a party in a crowd of thousands and only invite seven guests that doesn't seem like a shindig with much staying power. Just sayin.
Regards,
Douglas
