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DOVISH FED, SEASONALITY favor BULLS


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 05:44 PM

REUTERS: Dovish Fed view courses through markets
"Asian markets are poised to start the week on the front foot, emboldened by Wall Street's late rally on Friday and plunge in U.S. rate expectations after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave the clearest signal yet that the Fed is done raising interest rates and could soon move to cut them.



The S&P 500's rise to its highest level this year, and continued loosening of financial conditions via the falling dollar and bond yields should pave the way for a positive open for Asian stocks and risk assets on Monday.



The dollar shed 3% in November, its biggest monthly fall in a year, and last week fell for a third week in a row. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield slumped 40 basis points last week - its steepest fall since March - and the implied rate on December 2024 'SOFR' futures on Friday fell below 4% for the first time."

#2 dTraderB

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 05:47 PM

"There would appear to be room for Asian equities to bounce back - by some measures, the region's underperformance has rarely been this bad in years."

Yeah, looking forward to Asian markets rallying. Big LONG in HSI & A50.

REUTERS: Dovish Fed view courses through markets
"Asian markets are poised to start the week on the front foot, emboldened by Wall Street's late rally on Friday and plunge in U.S. rate expectations after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave the clearest signal yet that the Fed is done raising interest rates and could soon move to cut them.



The S&P 500's rise to its highest level this year, and continued loosening of financial conditions via the falling dollar and bond yields should pave the way for a positive open for Asian stocks and risk assets on Monday.



The dollar shed 3% in November, its biggest monthly fall in a year, and last week fell for a third week in a row. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield slumped 40 basis points last week - its steepest fall since March - and the implied rate on December 2024 'SOFR' futures on Friday fell below 4% for the first time."



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 05:52 PM

https://stockcharts....sdaq-1-134.html

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 05:55 PM

https://mailchi.mp/2...readth-reversal

https://stockcharts....sdaq-1-134.html



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 05:59 PM

"While I am starting to see some "conditions" (overbought, negative divergences, etc.) within the price action lately they shouldn't be assumed to be automatic "triggers". Another condition that some use as a "tell' for the general market is the VIX. When the VIX is low as it is now (12.50-13) the prevailing mindset is the market is ready to trade lower. However, that doesn't always hold. During the BULL market period before 2022, there were months when the Vix traded between 12 and 15, and the S&P kept climbing. I admit there were spikes in that timeframe but using the VIX as a timing tool usually doesn't work out.

"Conditions" can last a while before we see a reaction in price. The 'chase' for performance continues - the "hot" will stay "hot" for a while longer. The three-headed monster update; The trends in Oil, 10-year yield, and the US dollar are all still favorable for owning equities. That leaves the market running on sentiment/emotion, and I follow the old axiom and avoid "fighting the tape". Investors have another 'fine line' to walk. Take what the trend gives you while staying disciplined. There will always be additional setups presented."

https://seekingalpha...ace-wall-street

#6 dTraderB

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 08:43 PM

Bullish 55-45

"The results are in and you guys are bullish for the 6th straight week. That is the longest streak since October/November 2021"

Thanks so much for voting!
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 8:00 AM on Sat, Dec 02, 2023:
Saturday Poll.

The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://x.com/hmeisl...7867096289?s=03)

#7 dTraderB

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 08:56 PM

Above 200, in the Reversal zone. My FF is it spikes above 250 before reversing:

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

#8 dTraderB

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 08:58 PM


https://www.marketin...adth=arms-index

Above 200, in the Reversal zone. My FF is it spikes above 250 before reversing:

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 04 December 2023 - 06:44 AM

While there is a seasonally weaker period in early DECEMBER the markets are still in BTFD mode ... hence, not fighting the tape in neither US or CHINA, HK, HSI etc.
Will add another NQ HEDGE LONG below 15870
and another ES HEDGE LONG below 4545

#10 dTraderB

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Posted 04 December 2023 - 07:52 AM

BARRON'S: Health of Labor Market in Focus Ahead of Fed Meeting
Economists will get fresh data on the health of the U.S. labor market this week, including November payrolls data and the Bureau of Labor Statistics latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, as investors await the Federal Reserves December policy meeting.

Economists expect 9.35 million unfilled job positions as of the last day of October, down from Septembers higher-than-expected 9.55 million. There are currently 1.5 open positions for every unemployed worker, down from a peak of two in March of 2022.
ADP will release its private payrolls report for November on Wednesday. Analysts anticipate a gain of 125,000 private-sector jobs, up from 113,000 in October. Workers who changed jobs received annual pay raises of 8.4% in October, while those who kept their jobs received a 5.7% increase.
On Friday, economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report 175,000 new nonfarm payrolls were added in November, up 17% from the 150,000 in October. They see the unemployment rate staying at 3.9%.
Jobs growth has slowed to an average of 238,800 a month this year, after two years of average gains of above 500,000 a month. On Thursday, the Labor Department will release initial unemployment benefits claims for the week ended Dec. 2.
Whats Next: The jobs data come a week before the Feds last policy meeting of the year, with a decision on interest rates expected Dec. 13 followed by remarks by Chair Jerome Powell. Futures markets put a nearly 99% probability on rates holding steady, according to the CMEs FedWatch tool.