55 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) posted at 0:52 PM on Wed, Dec 27, 2023:

If you're wondering why NASDAQ volume is so high today, here's a clue: https://t.co/BjpsOLsy4M

[redfoliage2]

 

Some are buying every DIP
Some are now selling every RALLY...

I see there are likely about 30 SPX points left on the upside as bulls are looking for SPX 4800 as the end of the year target ....................

 

Well, from how SPX was closed today it looks that bulls want to see SPX 4800 tomorrow, or even higher.  Let's see ...........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 December 2023 - 04:12 PM.

[dTraderB]

Closed all GREEN positions in these:
Hong Kong HSI & CHINA A50 RALLIED MORE THAN 2.5%
Also in BABA & TLT
STILL HOLDING large LARGE LONG positions in all of above

[dTraderB]

"Santa Claus may have been and gone but the year-end rally is proving to be the gift that keeps giving. But it was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, rather than Kriss Kringle, who provided the Christmas cheer for stocks. At the central banks final meeting of the year, Powell and his colleagues shared forecasts for several rate cuts in 2024three according to median projections.

Markets have taken that and run with it, pricing in a first cut as early as March. But the shift in rate expectations, and subsequent acceleration of the stock market rally, poses a problem heading into 2024.

The risk is now skewed to the downside. Its unlikely a scenario plays out in which the Fed cuts rates any earlier than March. However, its perfectly plausible that economic data, or indeed a difference of opinion among Fed officials, leads to a delay in lowering borrowing costs.

Its not just the timing of the first cut that is crucial for the longevity of the stock market rally, but the extent of cuts in 2024. The market disagrees with the Fed, seeing between six and seven quarter-point cuts next year, according to the CMEs FedWatch tool.

For all the year-end cheer, the rallys path ahead looks fraught with risk and uncertainty. -- BARRON'S

[12SPX]

Been enjoying holidays, hope everyone got lots of toys!!!  Now onto New Years!! I finally picked up one of those things they use to call a cold the other day so been relaxing but have added to my ndx trade yesterday with an average short of 17040 now and my ES trade 4783.  I refuse to do "covid" testing besides the fact that a company up here just got charged for falsely representing their test results on them and death count results continue to get lowered, now over 40% I believe lol.  Market is seriously unbelievable here with the movement it is making, up 8 weeks in a row and now doesn't matter the direction of bonds at all.  As I have said though it will be interesting to see what happens when bonds rally due to the coming slowdown, will stocks follow....  Still think its gonna be a tough haul for the market next year as the average drawdown of stocks after the Fed first cuts is I believe -27% and what happens if they don't cut?  Market has put itself into an interesting place as we approach old highs going into the new year starting next week.  Btw, there has been way to much talk about the Christmas rally this year in my view.  Anyhow, not sure I'll post again as I'm in and out so hope everyone has a great New Year!!! 

[redfoliage2]

With today's treasury note auctions done now we are likely to see a late day bounce .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 28 December 2023 - 01:31 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Well, today's spike on the treasury 10Y yield really does not bode well, and I see bounces in stocks likely to be sold  .....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 28 December 2023 - 02:51 PM.

[dTraderB]

"Another key feature of 2023 was the recession that never came. The U.S. economy remained remarkably resilient, largely due to the strength of consumer spending.

As a result, the consumer discretionary sector is also on pace for its best ever year, according to Dow Jones Market Data, climbing 42%. Cruise stocks Royal Caribbean and Carnival are both in the S&P 500s top 10 best performers, highlighting the strong demand for travel this year among Americans.

Both companies and rival Norwegian Cruise Line have had record gains this year. Its also the best year in history for shares of Meta, Broadcom, General Electric, Airbnb, and Dow Inc.

Investors can now spend the long holiday weekend toasting their annual gains and celebrating the new year. But the rest will be brief as next week brings the minutes from the Feds recent meeting and a raft of employment data, culminating in Decembers jobs report.

The labor market needs to keep cooling if 2023s year-end gains are to survive the early part of 2024." -- BARRON'S

[dTraderB]

IWM Shares Outstanding Rises With Small Cap Interest - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart

https://www.mcoscill...l_cap_interest/

[dTraderB]

"Participation in the long term is weak, and it is overbought in the intermediate term. In our opinion the market is vulnerable for a correction."
https://stockcharts....pation-126.html