172 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

HAPPY 2024! MAY YOU RAKE IN BILLIONS!

[dTraderB]

Good 2023 but could have been much better if not for 3.52% loss in DECEMBER & 0.58% in November.
Still holding large US SHORT, CHINA/HSI LONG, TLT LONG.

[dTraderB]

Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) posted at 1:16 PM on Fri, Dec 29, 2023:
As of Wednesday, every single Fidelity select portfolio is outperforming cash. This means things are as good as they can possibly get, and there's just one way they can go from here -- but exactly when is unknowable. Gateway to the data here: https://t.co/52VAeBmuOb
(https://x.com/Walter...8499730467?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Dec 31, 2023
FS Insight
Lee Sees More Gains in 2024 But Theres a Wrinkle
When Tom Lee said a year ago that the S&P would end 2023 at 4750, many were inclined to dismiss the prediction as the view of a permabull who had contrarianed himself into a corner. As it turns out, not only did Lee come closer than any strategist out there to predicting the markets trajectory; he actually came within one-half of one percentage point less than the allowance for statistical error to the actual close at 4 PM on the last trading day of the year.

Lee is already focused on the future. He sees the beginning of 2024 as a launching point for further gains. The median max gain over the next 18 months is +22%. There is only one instance, May 2007, when the max further gain was nominal (<5%), while the other 10 instances saw significant further gains. Reaching an all-time high is a significant market milestone, and stocks do not suddenly reverse from there, Lee pointed out.

Is there a wrinkle? There is, actually. Seven out of 11 times, markets first consolidated with a modest drawdown, with overall declines at 2% to 5% in the current context, that means S&P 500 could pull back to 4,400-4,500 once we make all-time highs. This is consistent with Lees 2024 Market Outlook, in which his base case is that the S&P 500 makes most of its gains in 2H2024. Here are some potential reasons for this:

The markets could get itchy waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates, while the Fed itself dithers
The AI timeline could be pushed out due to a systematic hack by malevolent AI
The equity markets will need to consolidate the parabolic gains from late-2023.
Lee also pointed out that a drawdown in Feb/March would be consistent with election year seasonal returns. We see a pronounced downturn historically around the Feb/March timeframe, although it is not entirely clear why this happens.

[dTraderB]

SENTIMENTBTRADER:
Key points

All but two S&P 500 sectors have 89% or more of stocks in medium-term uptrends
This is one of the widest dispersions of uptrends among sectors since 1957
After other periods of widely dispersed uptrends, the S&P 500 equal-weight index performed exceptionally well
Almost all stocks in almost all sectors are in uptrends

The average stock has had an excellent few weeks. We've seen that from several different perspectives, like a 52-week breakout in the S&P 500 equal-weight index and nearly all stocks in the S&P 1500 being in medium-term uptrends.

Speaking to those uptrends, Dean pointed out that more than 90% of 1,500 stocks are above their 50-day moving averages. That's an impressive feat and preceded almost universal gains in the months ahead.

https://mailchi.mp/8...breadth-thrusts

[dTraderB]

https://stockcharts....ises-w-908.html

[dTraderB]

Intermediate-Term Participation Levels Are Very Overbought, and They Are Weak Long-Term
DECEMBER 28, 2023 AT 01:51 PM
Carl Swenlin
Founder, DecisionPoint.com

https://stockcharts....pation-126.html

https://stockcharts....ises-w-908.html

[dTraderB]

Bearish 56-44%
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 8:21 AM on Sun, Dec 31, 2023:
Was busy with the fam yesterday. Here are the results of the poll.

For the first time in 9 weeks you guys are looking for downside.

Thank you so very much for participating each week. Wishing all of you a very happy and successful 2024!
https://t.co/as7ZaAu23i
(https://x.com/hmeisl...2492473676?s=03)

[redfoliage2]

It looks the selling has started as I warned last Friday:

https://www.traders-...o-higher/page-6

Edited by redfoliage2, 02 January 2024 - 06:42 AM.

[redfoliage2]

It looks the selling has started as I warned last Friday:

https://www.traders-...o-higher/page-6

But let's see if bulls are able to reverse the drop in the futures once the cash market is open ............................