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My 2024 FF: New SPX & NDX HIGHS, then 10 % drop, new ATH by end of Decemver


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 07:19 AM

ES 4787.5 HEDGE LONG
NQ 16858 HEDGE LONG

HOLDING 2 EACH NQ & ES HEDGE LONGS

#12 redfoliage2

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 07:45 AM

BTW, I'd not be surprised if dip buyers step in buying at the gap down ............................



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 07:53 AM

"....
If we start to see a stronger US Dollar, that is most likely happening in an environment where stocks are under a lot more pressure than what we've grown accustomed to over the past quarter.

image
Notice how the Dollar has completely fallen apart since peaking on October 3rd.

October 3rd was the day that the new lows list peaked on the NYSE.

Also notice how the Dollar rallied off those mid-July lows.

The Dollar bottomed the same day that the new highs list peaked on the NYSE.

None of this is a coincidence, in my opinion.

If the US Dollar is back above 102, that's likely happening in an environment where stocks are under pressure and a more defensive position is best tactically.

I think it all comes down to time horizons.

What are your objectives as a trader or an investor, or both as in my personal case?

What about your risk tolerance? How much money are you willing to risk on any one theme or idea?

It's important to make sure you nail down these answers before moving forward. This goes for all of us...."
-- JC PARETS

#14 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 07:55 AM

"...Markets are convinced the first Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts are just around the corner. The odds of a quarter-point reduction in March stand at 74%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Data this week will add color to the outlook. Jobs data are due out Friday, and minutes from the Feds last meeting will be published Wednesday.

The problem is that stocks are priced for everything going right, when theres still a lot that can go wrong. Theres a more-than-decent chance that inflation stays sticky and the Fed doesnt cut as much as the market expects. And if the Fed does loosen policy as much as anticipated, it may well be because the economy has taken a nosedive as it runs into the wall of past rate hikes.

To be sure, optimism is high as the year kicks off. But its not too soon to worry that things might change" -- BARRON'S

#15 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 07:57 AM

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday
U.S. final S&P global manufacturing PMI
U.S. 3-, 6-month bill auctions

#16 12SPX

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 08:16 AM

Whoops these in the old thread lol!! 

 

Surprise surprise the markets down today with bond yields backing up fiercely.  Market the past month has been so fake and ridiculous with how overpriced it was.  It was another great year of profits selling option premium and trend trading with only one loss on the year.  Nice coming into the New Year with profits though with my profit stops at 4790 and 16870.  See how the cash market goes but if the 10-year yield goes over 4% again we could easily see a 2-5% correction just like the start of 2022 when the market was overly exuberant going into year end.



#17 slupert

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 08:16 AM

same thing every  new Year, Portfolio managers have to earn their salt. The grind is over. Security Market Line (SML) Definition and Characteristics (investopedia.com)



#18 12SPX

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 08:17 AM

profit stops,, 4785,16840...may go long there for a pop at the cash open but we'll see...



#19 slupert

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 08:18 AM

same thing every  new Year, Portfolio managers have to earn their salt. The grind is over. Security Market Line (SML) Definition and Characteristics (investopedia.com)

Optimal Portfolios - Portfolio Management | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep



#20 12SPX

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 08:33 AM

Was just adjusting so now long at 4783 and 16840 see how the cash open goes....