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2023 Q4 EARNINGS, POLITICS, MIDEAST - Can BULLS resume rally?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 06:02 PM

My FF is new SPX & NDX HIGHs before end of January with shallow pullbacks. Only RED SEA
SUPPLY CHAIN & MIDEAST WAR can derail this path.

#2 dTraderB

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 06:05 PM

My FF IS BIG BANKS earnings FRIDAY WILL BE BULLISH.

Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
Tokyo CPI Monday (December)
Japan household spending Monday (December)
South Korea unemployment rate Tuesday (December)

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 06:07 PM

EARNINGS THIS WEEK:

-JPMORGAN CHASE
-BANK OF AMERICA
-WELLS FARGO
-CITIGROUP
-BLACKROCK
-DELTA AIR LINES
-UNITEDHEALTH GROUP
-KB HOME
-TILRAY

https://m.investing....nings-calendar/

My FF IS BIG BANKS earnings FRIDAY WILL BE BULLISH.

Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
Tokyo CPI Monday (December)
Japan household spending Monday (December)
South Korea unemployment rate Tuesday (December)



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 06:09 PM

Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) posted at 10:02 PM on Thu, Jan 04, 2024:

My latest Chart In Focus article, "Seasonality Shows A January Dip", is posted at https://t.co/l0h1BlcSqj. This article highlights how January's behavior has changed over the years, from once being one of the most bullish months to more recently being a down month on average.

https://t.co/lF18ZxHDze
(https://x.com/McClel...1206979004?s=03)

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 07:12 PM

FUNDSTRAT:

FS Insight logo
Jan 7, 2024
FS Insight
What Does a Tough First Week Mean for the Rest of the Year?
After a 2023 in which the S&P 500 rose more than 24%, the rough markets in the first four trading days of the year proved somewhat jarring. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee had already warned that the first half of the year would likely be bumpy, as investors get itchy while waiting for anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. On Friday, he added, This turmoil in the first week of trading is telling us to brace for a challenging year, referencing his previous research showing that the first five trading days of January tend to foreshadow how the rest of the year plays out.

However, Lees outlook for 2024 as a whole remains constructive and largely unchanged. We expect stocks to ultimately rally strongly in the second half of the year, he said, with his year-end S&P 500 target at 5,200. The tailwinds he sees driving his 2024 forecast remain in place. They include:

Declining inflation
A dovish Fed shifting to managing the business cycle, rather than fighting an inflation war
Falling interest rates, benefiting consumers, corporates, and valuations
An upward inflection in PMI boosting earnings growth
Positive flows as sidelined investors allocate funds back into equities
In the near term, Lee points out that the strong gains of December are likely to extend into January and February: When December is positive, markets tend to do well in January and February, especially if December was up more than 4% (which it was). This coincides with election-year seasonality, discussed in our Chart of the Week below.

Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton has a constructive near-term reaction to the first trading week of the year. Technically, four days of equity weakness havent really done much technical damage at all, he said on Friday. Although rising bond yields pressured equities this week, momentum on yields is still very negative. I suspect that yields should start to roll over again soon, and that means that equities should start to rally, at least in the short term.

#6 dTraderB

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 07:13 PM

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted at 10:00 AM on Sun, Jan 07, 2024:
Key Events This Week:

1. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday

2. Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday

3. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday

4. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday

5. December PPI Inflation data - Friday

6. Total of 4 Fed Members Speak

Crucial inflation data
(https://x.com/Kobeis...3420999094?s=03)

EARNINGS THIS WEEK:

-JPMORGAN CHASE
-BANK OF AMERICA
-WELLS FARGO
-CITIGROUP
-BLACKROCK
-DELTA AIR LINES
-UNITEDHEALTH GROUP
-KB HOME
-TILRAY

https://m.investing....nings-calendar/

My FF IS BIG BANKS earnings FRIDAY WILL BE BULLISH.

Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
Tokyo CPI Monday (December)
Japan household spending Monday (December)
South Korea unemployment rate Tuesday (December)



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 07:17 PM

"Seasonal Trends Suggest Weakness in Q1
The reality is that this initial weakness in January is actually quite common in an election year. Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, addressed this seasonal pattern recently on my show. And the seasonal charts on StockCharts tell the same concerning story.

January through March is the weakest three-month period for stocks in an election year.
The McClellan Oscillator turned bearish this week, suggesting at least a short-term pullback for stocks.
The VIX remains low, but a push above 15 could indicate further downside, retracing the gains from Q4."

https://stockcharts....pendin-684.html

#8 dTraderB

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 07:22 PM

SENTIMENT TRADER:
"Internal momentum has reached escape velocity
Key points:

The McClellan Summation Index for the NYSE has reached escape velocity, never seen during bear markets
The Summation Indexes across indexes and sectors are at high or even record levels
This type of internal momentum has rarely, if ever, preceded negative medium- to long-term returns
Buying is so broad and persistent that it's historic

We've spent much time since October 2022 discussing internal momentum across indexes and sectors. With the latest push higher, many of those metrics confirm the participation that typically precedes further gains.

The McClellan Summation Index for the NYSE has pushed above +1000 after having been severely oversold. A very high reading is typically a good sign of lasting internal momentum, as Jay noted on Friday, and the fact that it has cycled from a deeply negative reading adds to its importance."

https://mailchi.mp/f...strong-quarters

#9 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2024 - 05:03 AM

NQ HEDGE LONG 16418.5
Holding 3 NQ & 2 ES

Will add ES below 4715

#10 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2024 - 05:06 AM

Busy ASIAN market session.
Will add A50 LONG below 11k
and HSI LONG BELOW 16150