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"..election years are weak historically during Q1...Lows tend to coincide with March."


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 14 January 2024 - 05:51 PM

"...Technology (XLK) is clearly the one to watch though as it has the biggest impact on the S&P 500. Currently, from this chart alone, I see significant risks ahead if you're overweighting technology:..."

https://stockcharts....tell-u-159.html

#2 dTraderB

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Posted 14 January 2024 - 05:52 PM


ADAM MANCINI: "...Ultimately, however, we have not gone far and since mid-December we have been consolidating in a large, multi-week bull flag roughly 100 points in size, with 4835 resistance and support low 4700s. 4835 has been a big a brick wall and we tested it again today. I wrote yesterday: The ultra bull case tomorrow, would involve ES not even losing the 4802 level (or if it does, quickly spiking to 4791 then recovering). This would target a run to 4828-34 directly, perhaps 1 more dip, then breakout. Today, we saw exactly this and overnight, we dipped to 4791, recovered 4802, then squeezed to 4834 this morning and dipped again.

One thing is brutally clear now: ES is building a base under 4835, and has been since mid-December. What do bases imply? A big move is coming. What way?"

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 14 January 2024 - 05:57 PM

Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) posted at 11:18 AM on Sat, Jan 13, 2024:

And here is what it looks like on a cumulative daily basis. This sort of divergence is quite irregular. https://t.co/wOu2SSgFAI
(https://x.com/McClel...3755278666?s=03)

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 8:02 AM on Sat, Jan 13, 2024:
Here is the 10 dma of Naz net volume in chart form. Quite the plunge.

https://t.co/r8f96yE9fd
(https://x.com/hmeisl...0204886223?s=03)

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 14 January 2024 - 05:58 PM

Poll 56-44 bearish

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 8:00 AM on Sat, Jan 13, 2024:
Saturday Poll.

The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://x.com/hmeisl...9932030122?s=03)

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 14 January 2024 - 06:18 PM


Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) posted at 3:14 PM on Fri, Jan 12, 2024:
Excellent question (and I really like good questions, better than answers). My best answer to why the market is trending higher is that there is a lot of money available. And this chart shows why, in spite of QT, there is still excess money available to push prices higher. It can https://t.co/qUFaIB1hSs
Ic (https://x.com/McClel...6463324224?s=03)

#6 dTraderB

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Posted 15 January 2024 - 06:29 AM

Happy MLK Day!
Traded Asian & US markets for a few hours last night. Wiil set alerts to monitor shortened US FUTURES markets today.

#7 dTraderB

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Posted 15 January 2024 - 06:43 AM

"Fed speakers this week include the always-influential New York Fed boss Williams, but perhaps more telling will be Governor Waller on Tuesday, given he will be addressing the economic outlook and is assumed to be close to Chair Powell in thinking.



What he says about the clear downward trajectory of the core PCE measure should make for interesting reading.



One risk to the good news story on inflation is the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea, with the U.S. military reporting on Sunday it had downed a Houthi cruise missile attack on its ships.



Analysts estimate 12% of world trade and 30% of container traffic typically goes through the Red Sea, but transits have dropped 35-45% in the past month and it takes an extra 15 days for ships to take the alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope.



S&P reports shipping rates have increased to more than $4,500 per forty-foot container on Asia-to-Europe lanes, from one-third of that level in October.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
Euro zone trade balance, industrial output for Nov
Participation by ECB board members Christine Lagarde and Piero Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels
Start of World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting"
-REUTERS

#8 dTraderB

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Posted 15 January 2024 - 06:46 AM

New LONG BRENT oil position $77.64
Will add below $77.24, $76.75, $76.20

Have a great day!

#9 dTraderB

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Posted 15 January 2024 - 12:55 PM

Closed 2 BRENT LONG $78.16

LIMIT ORDERS TO OPEN NEW LONGS BELOW 77.5

New LONG BRENT oil position $77.64
Will add below $77.24, $76.75, $76.20

Have a great day!



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 16 January 2024 - 05:47 AM

"Hawkish in Davos
In snowy Davos on Monday, European policymakers sent a tremor through bond markets with hawkish remarks pushing back on pricing for deep and imminent interest rate cuts.



Treasuries were shaky in Asia on Tuesday upon their return from a long weekend break in the U.S., and the dollar was on the rise.



MSCI's Asia ex-Japan share index slumped to a one-month low, dragged down by the Hang Seng's 2% drop to a 14-month trough.



British labour market data, Hugo Boss earnings and a German sentiment survey will highlight the European day, ahead of the U.S. Empire manufacturing survey and pre-market results from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.



A speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is also highly anticipated, given he will be addressing the economic outlook and is assumed to be close in thinking to Chair Powell."