216 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

PREDICTABLE -- SELL ALL RALLIES after STATE-CHINA & HK TEAM PUMPS IT UP & then take profits Just wait on it & then buy near or below previous lows.
I started adding LONGS after the mini-crash last night...

"There was an element of deja vu around the world too, with a fresh 1% swoon in ailing Chinese stocks to new 5-year lows - perhaps alarmingly without an obvious trigger and suggesting an element of panic selling amid geopolitical tensions, tit-for-tat investment curbs and seemingly endless property sector woes."

[dTraderB]

Is this JOBS REPORT important after POWELL ruled out MARCH RATES CUT? YES, because KRE plunged, some banks & funds in trouble:
"Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:
U.S. Jan employment report, Dec factory goods orders, University of Michigan final Jan household sentiment survey

* Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks

* U.S. corporate earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Abbvie, Bristol Myers Squibb, Regeneron, LyondellBasell, WW Grainger, Cboe Global Markets, Charter Communications, Church & Dwight"

[dTraderB]

May buy EXXON & CHEVRON CALLS

[dTraderB]

Closed ES SHORT 4837

ES short 5954.5

FLAT HEDGE

Closed NQ HEDGE LONG 17423

Holding 1 ES HEDGE LONG

Closed 4908.25

ES HEDGE LONG 4900

Closed ES HEDGE LONG 4917.5

Could be wrong... BUT THIS MARKET IS NOW ON BORROWED TIME!

Closing LONG HEDGES, holding only 2 ES & 1 NQ

[dTraderB]

NQ LONG 17535

Closed ES SHORT 4837

ES short 5954.5

FLAT HEDGE

Closed NQ HEDGE LONG 17423

Holding 1 ES HEDGE LONG

Closed 4908.25

ES HEDGE LONG 4900

Closed ES HEDGE LONG 4917.5

Could be wrong... BUT THIS MARKET IS NOW ON BORROWED TIME!

Closing LONG HEDGES, holding only 2 ES & 1 NQ

[dTraderB]

Buying A50 & HSI

[dTraderB]

My FF is the US MARKET is now at or near to an IT TOP. What do I define as NEAR in an IT context? Later

[redfoliage2]

 

 

PMI data just out confirming a soft landing.  The base for the current bullish case remains solid, and this dip is likely to be bought again.............................

As long as the data pointing to a soft landing the time when the Fed will cut rate is not important for the bull case , and this is why the Fed is not in a hurry to cut because there is no such a need.  But the Fed will be ready to cut if needed.  From the rear mirror I see the market just had a ST overaction yesterday to the Fed decision not cutting the rate in March  .................................

 

So the buzz word for the current bull case is soft landing till the data prove it's not, but then the Fed will be thinking about cutting the rate.  The good thing from yesterday's Fed meeting is it's the end for the Fed's rate hiking campaign ................................

 

NFP job data just out, showing strong economy.  Still pointing to soft landing ...............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 02 February 2024 - 08:52 AM.

[dTraderB]

NQ LONG 17535

Closed ES SHORT 4837
No way! Typo. 4937
Maybe in mid Feb we trade ES with 48 handle

ES short 5954.5

Typo: 5954.5 next year... but 4954.5

FLAT HEDGE

Closed NQ HEDGE LONG 17423

Holding 1 ES HEDGE LONG

Closed 4908.25

ES HEDGE LONG 4900

Closed ES HEDGE LONG 4917.5

Could be wrong... BUT THIS MARKET IS NOW ON BORROWED TIME!

Closing LONG HEDGES, holding only 2 ES & 1 NQ

[dTraderB]

Will close AMZN & META CALLS ASAP

META UP 67!
AMZN, MSFT also
AAPL down... but should be down by more than 7%

But CHINA/HK was again volatile & even telling us markets are fixed! their "NATIONAL TEAM" involved! I try to trade WITH NATIONAL TEAM interventions.
RISK-ON now in new month but still aggressive HEDGING with ST trades as I did from mid-January.
"China has pushed a group of state-linked companies to buy exchange-traded funds, part of an effort to boost stock prices. So far, its not working.

Chinas benchmark CSI 300 index has entered its fourth year of declines in a row, and is down 7.3% so far this year. Foreign investors are pulling out of the market. Chinas hundreds of millions of individual investors are shifting to safer assets, or betting on stock markets elsewhere.

The prolonged downturn in share prices is getting attention from regulators and politicians. The securities regulator has curbed short selling, and reduced a tax on stock trading. The State Council, Chinas cabinet, has called for more to be done to boost capital markets.

Enter the national team, a group of state-linked investors which buy shares and exchange-traded funds to drive up stock prices."-- WAJ