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#1 4caster

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Posted 03 February 2024 - 12:40 PM

Yesterday the BLS Jobs report was, once again, totally bogus. This past Wed. ADP reported new jobs

of 107,000 while the BLS reported 353,000 and the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. If you look at

the unemployment rate reported by the states about 80% of them said that their unemployment rate

went up. The executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that lay-offs went

up substantially in Jan. and are expected to go higher in 2024. I think the unemployment rate will go up

to about 6% or so this year. In the 4th Q GDP report there was a big red flag. Inventories increased

by a miniscule .07% because businesses believe a recession is coming and don't want to get caught

holding unsold inventories. World economies are beginning to have serious problems. The Chinese

economy is falling apart and last week Germany reported that it's in a recession. Oil prices have

been declining since late Sept. and are continuing to decline because worldwide demand is falling.

Aozora Bank and NY Community Bank announced last week $700 million of write-offs with their

U.S. commercial mortgages. I think we'll see more of this in 2024. Business bankruptcies increased

40% in the 4th Q and I think we'll also see more of this in 2024. The bi-weekly CivicScience Economic

Sentiment Index dropped sharply in Jan. which is not good news for consumer spending which accounts

for about 70% of GDP. As the rate of CPI & PPi decline it will cause profit margin problems for businesses

resulting in reported earnings coming in below estimates. Nassim Taleb who wrote the book The Black Swan

said last week that he thinks that the U.S. debt will become a White Swan which is more predictable than a

Black Swan event.

 

With those of you who are into The Dow Theory stuff you're seeing that the Transports are not confirming the move

up in the Dow. The ITBMNYA has been in a downtrend since Dec. 29th and was down yesterday in a big mkt

move to the upside. The SPXA50 has been in a downtrend since Dec. 29th and was down yesterday. The

BPSPX has been in a downtrend since Dec. 29th and was up only .80 yesterday. Last week the $BANK 

Index(Bank Index-Nasdaq) fell sharply so I'm not the only who thinks the commercial real estate mkt is

going to implode this year. I think the AI stocks are in a classic example of a bubble which at some point

is going to burst but I don't know when. I wonder how much longer the tech stocks(mostly AI) can carry this

mkt on their backs to higher ground. I don't know, but I do know that it's hard to slay a Bull. I love to fly my

airplane and this mkt reminds me of when you fly a plane straight up to get it to stall like you see at an

airshow and then it goes straight down. I wish all of you the very best.



#2 steadyquest

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Posted 03 February 2024 - 04:52 PM

Wonder if this weekly higher low can hold against the bull stampede

hdge1.png

 

And the monthly higher low

hdge2.png

 

Could be a good swing whichever way it breaks

hdge3.png



#3 K Wave

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Posted 04 February 2024 - 09:42 AM

Yesterday the BLS Jobs report was, once again, totally bogus. This past Wed. ADP reported new jobs

of 107,000 while the BLS reported 353,000 and the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. If you look at

the unemployment rate reported by the states about 80% of them said that their unemployment rate

went up. The executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that lay-offs went

up substantially in Jan. and are expected to go higher in 2024. I think the unemployment rate will go up

to about 6% or so this year. In the 4th Q GDP report there was a big red flag. Inventories increased

by a miniscule .07% because businesses believe a recession is coming and don't want to get caught

holding unsold inventories. World economies are beginning to have serious problems. The Chinese

economy is falling apart and last week Germany reported that it's in a recession. Oil prices have

been declining since late Sept. and are continuing to decline because worldwide demand is falling.

Aozora Bank and NY Community Bank announced last week $700 million of write-offs with their

U.S. commercial mortgages. I think we'll see more of this in 2024. Business bankruptcies increased

40% in the 4th Q and I think we'll also see more of this in 2024. The bi-weekly CivicScience Economic

Sentiment Index dropped sharply in Jan. which is not good news for consumer spending which accounts

for about 70% of GDP. As the rate of CPI & PPi decline it will cause profit margin problems for businesses

resulting in reported earnings coming in below estimates. Nassim Taleb who wrote the book The Black Swan

said last week that he thinks that the U.S. debt will become a White Swan which is more predictable than a

Black Swan event.

 

With those of you who are into The Dow Theory stuff you're seeing that the Transports are not confirming the move

up in the Dow. The ITBMNYA has been in a downtrend since Dec. 29th and was down yesterday in a big mkt

move to the upside. The SPXA50 has been in a downtrend since Dec. 29th and was down yesterday. The

BPSPX has been in a downtrend since Dec. 29th and was up only .80 yesterday. Last week the $BANK 

Index(Bank Index-Nasdaq) fell sharply so I'm not the only who thinks the commercial real estate mkt is

going to implode this year. I think the AI stocks are in a classic example of a bubble which at some point

is going to burst but I don't know when. I wonder how much longer the tech stocks(mostly AI) can carry this

mkt on their backs to higher ground. I don't know, but I do know that it's hard to slay a Bull. I love to fly my

airplane and this mkt reminds me of when you fly a plane straight up to get it to stall like you see at an

airshow and then it goes straight down. I wish all of you the very best.

 

 

REIT at critical juncture here...either what we just saw was last gasp before a big bear run....or...it finds it footing in this area, and we avoid the big 2008 style collapse in everything.

 

 

So far......the real damage has been in office space, and that is pretty much as wiped out as it comes at this point. VNO resembles that remark. Could it go down below 10 and then lay there dead for a while? Possible....

 

 

The one that is perhaps most concerning here is the Utes, as they "appear" at this point be be perhaps leading out the peloton into a possible bear market run....next few weeks hopefully provide some good clues...and watch Trannies and RUT (which is setup similar to REIT here) as well

 

 

Weekly look....600 area on deck possibly? and quicker than we may think if it lets go soon?

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#4 4caster

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Posted 04 February 2024 - 02:35 PM

Thanks to both of you for putting those charts on here. HDGE is one of the indicators I look at

and I've been asking myself for quite a while, how much lower is it going to go?. Maybe the 

Bulls will take it to 0.



#5 4caster

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Posted 04 February 2024 - 03:42 PM

And one final point I forgot to mention. The Rydex has gone from 2.0 during the 1st week of Oct.

of 2022 down to its' current reading of 0.163 although it got down to 0.063 during the last week of

Dec. of 2021.



#6 steadyquest

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Posted 04 February 2024 - 04:19 PM

Since this count represents a bullish trend I would expect it to (at least) reach the target price, i.e., continuation of the rally (unless/until something breaks).  There are just too many forces conspiring to drive the phony-baloney market to greater heights - regardless of the true state of the phony-baloney economy.

hdge4.png



#7 4caster

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Posted 06 February 2024 - 08:09 AM

Last Fri., in a big up day, the UP Vol. declined sharply while the DOWN Vol. rose sharply which showed

that a whole bunch of folks sold into the strength. So far this year the IWM has not confirmed the move

up in the NDX, just like the Transports haven't confirmed the move up in the Dow. At some point although

I don't know when the Bulls are going to be forced to come to grips with the fact that beneath the surface

breadth is falling apart.