243 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Powerful FOMO FRENZY on... can quickly add 5 to 10% to major indices.
NIKKEI 40K
RWUTERS: Stock markets in Asia start the week with clear momentum behind them, especially in Japan and China, but may be vulnerable to a spot of profit-taking as investors pause for breath after last week's tech- and AI-fueled global buying frenzy.



The Asian economic calendar on Monday is light, with Japanese producer price inflation for January the main event, followed by industrial production from Singapore.



China's CSI 300 index of blue chip shares eked out a slender rise on Friday to seal its ninth straight day of gains and best run since January 2018. Another rise on Monday would mark its longest winning streak since late 2014.



Friday's rise was only 0.1% though, suggesting fatigue may be setting in.

For Japan, however, there's little sign of fatigue yet, at least not on the surface, with the Nikkei 225 surging more than 2% on Friday to a new all-time high. The 40,000-point mark will surely be traders' near-term target now.



The weak yen continues to help make Japanese assets attractive to foreign investors, and the dollar goes into Monday's session comfortably above 150.00 yen. Again, is a bout of profit-taking or even intervention imminent, or does recent momentum persist?



Hedge funds' bearish positioning in the yen has grown to historically high levels, the latest U.S. futures market figures show, so perhaps the FX market is ripe for a correction.

Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:
Japan services PPI (January)
Singapore industrial production (January)
U.S. 2-year, five year bond auctions

[dTraderB]

Investor Euphoria: The Euphoriameter is something I put together about a decade ago, designed to capture market sentiment from multiple sources (forward PE higher valuations imply higher confidence, VIX lower volatility is seen at times of maximum complacency, and surveyed bullishness people feel bullish when prices go up). But you probably didnt even need to see this chart to know that Euphoria is the dominant market mood right now!

https://www.topdownc...m/euphoriameter

[dTraderB]

"In our Chart of the Week, Fundstrats Tom Lee looks to recent history to further assess whether weve reached a near-term top. Since the market bottomed in October 2022, we have had two other rallies. The first lasted 16 weeks and resulted in a 20% rise before pulling back, and the second one gave us 21% over 19 weeks. The current rally has gone on for 17 weeks, Lee observed, and in rough terms, I think this one should go on a little longer, maybe 19 to 21 weeks so, basically, maybe a few more weeks. But Id say were in a mature rally and its getting a little trickier.

https://fsinsight.co...-of-the-market/

Edited by dTraderB, 25 February 2024 - 07:39 PM.

[dTraderB]

2/26 9:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey
2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price
2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer Confidence
2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDP
2/29 8:30am ET January PCE
3/01 10:00am ET Feb (final) U Mich Inflation Expectations

"In our Chart of the Week, Fundstrats Tom Lee looks to recent history to further assess whether weve reached a near-term top. Since the market bottomed in October 2022, we have had two other rallies. The first lasted 16 weeks and resulted in a 20% rise before pulling back, and the second one gave us 21% over 19 weeks. The current rally has gone on for 17 weeks, Lee observed, and in rough terms, I think this one should go on a little longer, maybe 19 to 21 weeks so, basically, maybe a few more weeks. But Id say were in a mature rally and its getting a little trickier.

https://fsinsight.co...-of-the-market/

[dTraderB]

Had a great 2 weeks with A50, HSI, AND BABA longs But am now flat. Will start new LONGS only when US markets pull back.

[dTraderB]

NQ 19978

2 NQ & 1 ES HEDGE LONG

VERY BIG TECH & merely BIG S&P SHORT POSITION

NQ 17970

ES 5107

Got to hedge again: NQ 18038 LONG

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
U.S. Jan new home sales, Dallas Fed's Feb manufacturing survey
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid speaks; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks in Strasbourg
World Trade Organization ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi
U.S. Treasury auctions 2- and 5-year notes, 3- and 6-month bills
U.S. corp earnings: Zoom, Domino's Pizza, iRobot, AES, ONEOK, SBA Communications, Progressive, Fidelity National Information Services, Skywater, Everbridge, EverQuote, Freshpet, Kaspi, Itron, Playtika Li Auto, Krystal Biotech etc

[dTraderB]

Closed 1 NQ HEDGE LONG 18000.25
HOLDING 2 NQ & 1 ES LONG
Will again be aggressively daytrading HEDGE LONGS

NQ 19978

2 NQ & 1 ES HEDGE LONG

VERY BIG TECH & merely BIG S&P SHORT POSITION

NQ 17970

ES 5107

Got to hedge again: NQ 18038 LONG

[dTraderB]

Warren Buffetts Downbeat Mood Clashes With Stock Market Optimism, Why Thats a Warning. And 5 Other Things to Know Before Markets Open.
Warren Buffetts Downbeat Mood Clashes With Stock Market Optimism, Why Thats a Warning. And 5 Other Things to Know Before Markets Open.:
Fear may well creep in this week, with the Federal Reserves preferred inflation metriccore PCEcoming Thursday. A hot reading could at least halt the markets recent rallythough it seems to be more preoccupied with the AI frenzy, which Berkshire has opted not to join.
In fact, Buffett took aim at the markets casino-like behavior in his letter. Investors chasing this frothy market higher are certainly taking a gamble.
https://www.barrons....-today-85075531

[12SPX]

Man, feels like a Monday or maybe its because I played 2 hours of tennis yesterday and 2 hours of Padel the day before, body's not used to it yet lol!!  Nonetheless did go back and forth a little with my ndx short from Friday making 24 points profit and back in now with this pop at 18010 for the cash open.  Added a little to my ES short now at 5072.  Still feel this rally has gone on for to long and needs some correcting and consolidation at the least, just as Katie Stockton who is one my fave technical analysts agrees although I'm not a big techie or fundamentalist, I watch the tape and prices of options which currently are way to pricey!!  Do love all the calls that the market can now hit even 6000 before a pullback but aware the difference between now and 2000 is that companies are actually making money this time around but my beef with that is even that isn't sustainable and so far earnings aren't that great overall.  Even nividea's earnings are suspect as their inventories continue to grow each quarter....Next few months will be interesting I'm sure but for now I'll just look at seeing if we can fill the very first gap from last Wednesday lol!!