In the BLS jobs report there were 85,000 new jobs in the Private Education & Healthcare industries,
58,000 in Leisure & Hospitality and 52,000 in Government. The Biden BLS folks have reported more
downward revisions in the history of the BLS. The jobs # of 333,000 for Dec. was revised downward
to 290,000 and the Jan. # of 353,000 was revised downward to 229,000. Over the past 12 months
the BLS has revised downward about 1 million jobs, the largest in the history of the BLS. No doubt
in my mind that the Feb. # will also be revised downward. In the report it was pointed out that over
the past 12 months average hourly earnings increased by 4.3%. Because the C.P.I. has increased
3.1% over the past 12 months inflation adjusted average hourly earnings have increased 1.2%. In
the Feb. report average hourly earnings increased by a miniscule 0.1% which means that there was
a decrease in "real" average hourly earnings of 3.0% which has negative implications for consumer
spending. In a recent report FICO pointed out that the national average credit score dropped from
718 to 717. Although this is a small drop it's the first decline in credit scores in 10 years. In its'
report FICO wrote, "The effects of high interest rates and persistent inflation may be starting to
weigh on consumers, especially those already struggling to manage their finances". This appears to be
more evidence that consumers have gotten to the point where they realize that they need to cut
back on spending which also has negative implications for consumer spending. Last week Steve
Mnuchin and his buddies rescued NYCB. I think that more regional banks which have an exposure
to commercial mortgages will also have to be rescued. In a recent interview on Fox & Friends, real
estate mogul Grant Cardone said, "I just want to say that we're entering the greatest real estate
correction in my lifetime. It won't include single family homes but it will include offices and apartments".
In a recent note to clients, Citigroup's Chris Montagu noted a remarkable surge in long positions in
Nasdaq 100 futures indicating an 'increasingly one sided market'. Several states have what's called
WARN notifications. Employers in those states have to notify their respective states when they plan
"significant" layoffs. According to WARN Tracker employers in California, New York and Washington
plan to lay off 25,210 employees in the coming months. Ian Shepherdson, the chairman and chief
economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said at a recent conference, "The drop in hiring plans is
consistent with private payroll growth slowing sharply in the spring. For the first time in this cycle,
the trends in both hiring and firing are worsening at the same time". And yesterday we saw
something we haven't seen in a while, investors/traders sold the rallies vs. buying the dips and
NVDA got hit. Could this be the start of a downturn? Well, it's hard to slay a Bull.
