115 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

FUNDSTRAT: "The latest SEP showed that members still expect three rate cuts for 2024 (as shown in our Chart of the Week). Markets immediately rallied in response, with the S&P 500 breaking the 5,200 mark for the first time and closing at a new all-time high Wednesday and again on Thursday. Can this continue?

Lee thinks its possible, suggesting that the March 20 FOMC meeting will ultimately convince the market that the Fed remains dovish. Looking forward, he suggested that once this happens, a lot of things can happen all of them arguably good for stocks. In his view, perceptions of a dovish Fed will result in easing financial conditions, expansion of market breadth, and improved CEO confidence.

Lee also pointed out that the technicals appear to be in place for markets to continue rallying, citing the work of Fundstrat Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton. At our weekly research huddle, Newton elaborated on this: I hear a lot of people who are saying, the markets overextended, or the markets overbought. And its true that the S&P 500 has made an extraordinary move, up over 26% since October, but much of that has been large-cap Tech.

He continued, I think many of those skeptics would be surprised to learn that, on an equal-weighted basis, a breakout has literally just started. Were seeing a broadening out in the market that is actually quite healthy rotation out of Technology, which has underperformed the last month, into Energy and Materials, and weve already seen Financial and Industrials performing well. This is actually very constructive for the market. Thats why, in my view, we have to be in the market and not be concerned about how overbought the S&P and QQQ have gotten of late.

[dTraderB]

3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey
3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price
3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDP
3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCE

[dTraderB]

POLL marginally bullish 51-49

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 1:18 PM on Sat, Mar 23, 2024:
The results are in and folks lean bullish, just barely. Four weeks ago they were similar and six weeks ago they were similar.

Thanks for voting! https://t.co/BDE3BX2Qpa

[dTraderB]

I am not seekng CLIMATIC INSANE BLOWOFF that signifies an IT TOP. But, maybe, there will be a stealth IT TOP.

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 10:29 AM on Sat, Mar 23, 2024:
Consensus bulls 10 wk ma now 77.5. Been keeping this since 1987. Highest reading in that time frame.
A=August 97
B=June 07
C=April 12 (this surprised me but had a 10% sell off after that)
D=Jan. 18 https://t.co/ceZ4UvfS8P

[12SPX]

So not surprising were down this morning as the market just didn't feel right last night.  Being a tape watcher I know there is no real hard facts to support my theory but is to me as I say it tells you a lot in the end.  Also the call options which last week were way over priced with that 5400 call I was using as an example, has been cut in half in two days with little movement so you can see what I;m talking about.  There is no rationality in this market....Didn't catch his name on onbc but the ex fed governor they had on was spot on.  I too agree with him that I wish the Fed would just shut up and quit talking as it has added to much speculation and hope in the market instead of rationality.  This market is moving insanely and looking at the chiefs chart of the nyse reveals that to me.  One thing I always love about trend lines is you can always move them,,,,,,after the fact of course to make your chart and predictions look so wonderful.  Unfortunately if you didn't post your prediction where the chart started its all just air lol!!!  I think its better to stick with the line that was original which tells me the market needs to correct a bit to recharge and get inline and then continue to go up otherwise as also commented on, you get a crash..  Should be an interesting week as I'm still holding my shorts from 5270 and 18430 as I think we may just test those break out levels from when powell was speaking, should be fun!!!

[dTraderB]

BULLISH BOSTIC: FED'S BOSTIC: CUTTING RATES TOO SOON COULD BE MORE DISRUPTIVE.

Will start closing LONGS above ES 5290 & ES 18550 unless more LONGS are opened below ES 5275 & NQ 18480

WILL ADD A50 & HSI LONGD below 12025 & 16250
Will add NVDA PUT above 960

[dTraderB]

Will close 1 USDYEN SHORT BELOW 151.05
WILL ADD ABOVE 151.75

[12SPX]

Hmmmm I see I can now buy an AI toothbrush, does that mean I still have to move it around now though lol!!  And no one thinks were in a bubble there lol!!! 

[redfoliage2]

The market is in a consolidation ............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 25 March 2024 - 09:48 AM.

[dTraderB]

Agree. Also, thinner volume next few days of this shortened week not only in US but ASUA, EU etc

So not surprising were down this morning as the market just didn't feel right last night.  Being a tape watcher I know there is no real hard facts to support my theory but is to me as I say it tells you a lot in the end.  Also the call options which last week were way over priced with that 5400 call I was using as an example, has been cut in half in two days with little movement so you can see what I;m talking about.  There is no rationality in this market....Didn't catch his name on onbc but the ex fed governor they had on was spot on.  I too agree with him that I wish the Fed would just shut up and quit talking as it has added to much speculation and hope in the market instead of rationality.  This market is moving insanely and looking at the chiefs chart of the nyse reveals that to me.  One thing I always love about trend lines is you can always move them,,,,,,after the fact of course to make your chart and predictions look so wonderful.  Unfortunately if you didn't post your prediction where the chart started its all just air lol!!!  I think its better to stick with the line that was original which tells me the market needs to correct a bit to recharge and get inline and then continue to go up otherwise as also commented on, you get a crash..  Should be an interesting week as I'm still holding my shorts from 5270 and 18430 as I think we may just test those break out levels from when powell was speaking, should be fun!!!