Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
China Caixin manufacturing PMI (March)
Japan tankan survey (Q1)
Indonesia inflation (March)
BULLISHNESS PREVAILS - Important CHINA/JAPAN data
Started by
dTraderB
, Mar 31 2024 04:57 PM
227 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 31 March 2024 - 05:08 PM
Closed 1 ES LONG 5300
Closed 1 NQ LONG 18570.5
Closed 1 NQ LONG 18570.5
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 31 March 2024 - 05:21 PM
Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) posted at 6:12 PM on Sun, Mar 31, 2024:
Equities approve of PCE number and Powells comments on Friday. S&P futures up +20 Sunday night, tens minutes in.
(https://x.com/WayneW...4264362072?s=03)
Equities approve of PCE number and Powells comments on Friday. S&P futures up +20 Sunday night, tens minutes in.
(https://x.com/WayneW...4264362072?s=03)
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 31 March 2024 - 05:29 PM
Bullish poll 57-43
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 1:26 PM on Sat, Mar 30, 2024:
The results are in and folks lean bullish as we enter the 2Q.
Thanks for voting and Happy Easter to all who celebrate! https://t.co/sw6WdFK8J8
(https://x.com/hmeisl...4120491323?s=03)
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 1:26 PM on Sat, Mar 30, 2024:
The results are in and folks lean bullish as we enter the 2Q.
Thanks for voting and Happy Easter to all who celebrate! https://t.co/sw6WdFK8J8
(https://x.com/hmeisl...4120491323?s=03)
Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
China Caixin manufacturing PMI (March)
Japan tankan survey (Q1)
Indonesia inflation (March)
#5
dTraderB
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Posted 31 March 2024 - 05:34 PM
Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 11:47 AM on Fri, Mar 29, 2024:
April is here, and worth noting its is a seasonally very bullish month for $SPX. It is the third strongest month on average (key word), with 80% of Aprils over the last 20 years being green. Currently, SPX has outperformed its seasonal average for a very rare 5 months in a row https://t.co/ps3vohwDXS
April is here, and worth noting its is a seasonally very bullish month for $SPX. It is the third strongest month on average (key word), with 80% of Aprils over the last 20 years being green. Currently, SPX has outperformed its seasonal average for a very rare 5 months in a row https://t.co/ps3vohwDXS
Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) posted at 6:12 PM on Sun, Mar 31, 2024:
Equities approve of PCE number and Powells comments on Friday. S&P futures up +20 Sunday night, tens minutes in.
(https://x.com/WayneW...4264362072?s=03)
#6
dTraderB
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Posted 31 March 2024 - 06:03 PM
FUNDSTRAT:
Why Q2 Could See Rally Continuing
Markets continued to advance on the last trading week of the month and quarter, which ended on the Thursday of a shortened trading week. The S&P 500 again closed at new all-time highs, notching five consecutive months of gains. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee sees more gas in the tank, with fund flows and cash on the sidelines suggesting that we have yet to approach a top in this latest rally.
Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, agreed. In his technicals-based view, Weve seen the best start to the year in the past five years, and theres really no evidence of any technical deterioration whatsoever, he said during our weekly research huddle.
Lee has described the current rally as mature, but Newton suggested that maturing might be a more appropriate descriptor. I see this rally as gradually maturing, he said. The waning of Technology over the last month has been encouraging, because it really has not caused any technical damage to the market. Weve seen the move in Industrials, Financials, and Discretionary all give way to strength in commodity-based sectors. Energy has just broken out to its highest level in 10 years. I wrote more about this move, and about some of my favorite names in that sector, a few days ago, he reminded us.
Why Q2 Could See Rally Continuing
Markets continued to advance on the last trading week of the month and quarter, which ended on the Thursday of a shortened trading week. The S&P 500 again closed at new all-time highs, notching five consecutive months of gains. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee sees more gas in the tank, with fund flows and cash on the sidelines suggesting that we have yet to approach a top in this latest rally.
Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, agreed. In his technicals-based view, Weve seen the best start to the year in the past five years, and theres really no evidence of any technical deterioration whatsoever, he said during our weekly research huddle.
Lee has described the current rally as mature, but Newton suggested that maturing might be a more appropriate descriptor. I see this rally as gradually maturing, he said. The waning of Technology over the last month has been encouraging, because it really has not caused any technical damage to the market. Weve seen the move in Industrials, Financials, and Discretionary all give way to strength in commodity-based sectors. Energy has just broken out to its highest level in 10 years. I wrote more about this move, and about some of my favorite names in that sector, a few days ago, he reminded us.
#7
dTraderB
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Posted 31 March 2024 - 06:10 PM
Core PCE Data Has Powell Pleased - May Set Tone For Q2
MARCH 29, 2024 AT 11:30 PM
The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation was released today and, according to Fed chief Jerome Powell, "it was good," as there were no ugly surprises. This news could boost the markets, as sticky inflation data has had investors on edge amid interest rates that have remained relatively high. The stock and bond markets were of course closed today, however, so we won't see a response from traders until next week.
Overall, we're heading into next week on good terms, with the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 at new highs with small-cap stocks in an uptrend after posting an impressive 2.5%. In other positive news, we're continuing to see a broadening out of participation well beyond the Magnificent Seven stocks which dominated last year's top performance lists.
https://stockcharts....-pleas-706.html
?mc_cid=c83c7f3994&mc_eid=8d085491f3
Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
China Caixin manufacturing PMI (March)
Japan tankan survey (Q1)
Indonesia inflation (March)[/quote]
MARCH 29, 2024 AT 11:30 PM
The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation was released today and, according to Fed chief Jerome Powell, "it was good," as there were no ugly surprises. This news could boost the markets, as sticky inflation data has had investors on edge amid interest rates that have remained relatively high. The stock and bond markets were of course closed today, however, so we won't see a response from traders until next week.
Overall, we're heading into next week on good terms, with the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 at new highs with small-cap stocks in an uptrend after posting an impressive 2.5%. In other positive news, we're continuing to see a broadening out of participation well beyond the Magnificent Seven stocks which dominated last year's top performance lists.
https://stockcharts....-pleas-706.html
?mc_cid=c83c7f3994&mc_eid=8d085491f3
Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
China Caixin manufacturing PMI (March)
Japan tankan survey (Q1)
Indonesia inflation (March)[/quote]
Edited by dTraderB, 31 March 2024 - 06:11 PM.
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 31 March 2024 - 06:14 PM
"The S&P 500 has never been lower after this price momentum signal
Key points:
The S&P 500's Relative Strength Index has closed above a value of 50 for 98 straight trading sessions
Similar price momentum preceded a 100% win rate over the following two, three, six, and twelve months
The RSI range count for Financials has matched the S&P 500, with the highest reading since 1971
Bullish price momentum begets more bullish price momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), created by J. Welles Wilder, is a popular technical indicator that measures price momentum. Too often, social media accounts and the press misrepresent the indicator's meaning, especially the overbought and oversold levels.
When the RSI reverses from oversold to overbought, it represents positive price momentum that will likely persist, a scenario that occurred last fall. My colleague, Jay Kaepell, highlighted this event in a research report.
Equally important after a bearish to bullish shift is the ability of the RSI indicator to sustain itself at a relatively high level, which also indicates bullish price momentum. Some analysts refer to this condition as a bull range.
After shifting above 50 last fall, the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has maintained a reading above that level for 98 consecutive trading sessions, the sixth-longest streak in history. The previous signal occurred in 2017 during a low volatility uptrend."
https://mailchi.mp/s...momentum-signal
Key points:
The S&P 500's Relative Strength Index has closed above a value of 50 for 98 straight trading sessions
Similar price momentum preceded a 100% win rate over the following two, three, six, and twelve months
The RSI range count for Financials has matched the S&P 500, with the highest reading since 1971
Bullish price momentum begets more bullish price momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), created by J. Welles Wilder, is a popular technical indicator that measures price momentum. Too often, social media accounts and the press misrepresent the indicator's meaning, especially the overbought and oversold levels.
When the RSI reverses from oversold to overbought, it represents positive price momentum that will likely persist, a scenario that occurred last fall. My colleague, Jay Kaepell, highlighted this event in a research report.
Equally important after a bearish to bullish shift is the ability of the RSI indicator to sustain itself at a relatively high level, which also indicates bullish price momentum. Some analysts refer to this condition as a bull range.
After shifting above 50 last fall, the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has maintained a reading above that level for 98 consecutive trading sessions, the sixth-longest streak in history. The previous signal occurred in 2017 during a low volatility uptrend."
https://mailchi.mp/s...momentum-signal
#9
dTraderB
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Posted 01 April 2024 - 07:22 AM
ES LONG 5313.5
NQ LONG 18498.5
NQ LONG 18498.5
#10
dTraderB
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Posted 01 April 2024 - 08:12 AM
"Economists expect Tuesdays Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey to show 8.7 million job openings as of the last business day of February, down by 163,000. There are currently 1.4 job openings for every unemployed person, down from a peak of two in March 2022.
On Wednesday ADP is expected to release its private payrolls report for March. Economists forecast a 150,000 increase in private-sector employment, after a 140,000 increase in February. Annual pay was up 5.1% in February according to ADP.
Economists expect Fridays jobs report to show the economy added 180,000 jobs in March, versus Februarys 275,000 gain and the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.9%. The rate has been below 4% for more than two consecutive years, the first time that has happened since the late 1960s."
On Wednesday ADP is expected to release its private payrolls report for March. Economists forecast a 150,000 increase in private-sector employment, after a 140,000 increase in February. Annual pay was up 5.1% in February according to ADP.
Economists expect Fridays jobs report to show the economy added 180,000 jobs in March, versus Februarys 275,000 gain and the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.9%. The rate has been below 4% for more than two consecutive years, the first time that has happened since the late 1960s."
