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BULLISHNESS PREVAILS - Important CHINA/JAPAN data


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#41 dTraderB

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 06:31 AM

My FF is THIS IS STILL A BULL MARKET, TIRED, OVEREXTENDED, EXTREME LOW VOLATILITY, ETC BUT PULLBACKS MUST BE BOUGHT UNTIL.... that time when you should stop trying to catch falling knives. That is not now. BUT WATCH THE USD INDEX, PULLBACKS, THE HIGH FLYERS, THE BOND MARKET... TAKE PROFITS, HEDGE, BE ALERT...

"But the reasons behind the quarters sluggish start may be cause for concern. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank doesnt need to be in a hurry to cut interest rates. The message seemed to hit home for markets, helped along by strong manufacturing data Monday.

Bond yields rose and the probability of a rate cut in June fell to 58%, down from 73% a month ago, according to CMEs FedWatch tool. To be sure, yields have risen this year and rate expectations have also been pushed back. But neither of those things has significantly impacted stocks, which have surged to record highs.

However, the start to April trading suggests rate expectations and the bond market could have a more significant role to play.

Another factor for investors to watch is the performance of the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks. Tesla, which reports crucial delivery numbers Tuesday, and Apple have lagged behind the broader market in 2024 and more recently the rest of the group, including Nvidia, has underperformed.

On the one hand that indicates broader market strength, on the other it suggests the heavily weighted group may not be able to drag stocks higher in times of need.

Of course, it could just be a blip.."

Edited by dTraderB, 02 April 2024 - 06:32 AM.


#42 dTraderB

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 06:37 AM

BEARISH for EQUITIES: "the dollar is looking firm and trading around its highest since mid-November against a basket of major currencies."

THE JOLTS!
"Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:
February durable goods orders
March JOLTS"

#43 12SPX

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 07:46 AM

Hope everyone had a great Easter weekend!!  I was trading yesterday but was still kinda on holidays so no reporting.  Made some great profits on my shorts that I went into the weekend with and added with the open on Sunday night bringing my average to 5300 and 18480 and with the selling yesterday was taking profits for a total of 20 and 50 points and am back in again going short at the close 5300 and 18500 overnight with profit stops at 5270 and I just took profits for 90 points on my ndx trade.  I'll wait to add another ndx trade maybe after the cash open.  Interest rates have really backed up and if they hold these levels I think stocks will finally start reacting to them as its appearing the soft Fed talk isn't working because the June rate cut is now below 50% odds so we could finally see a correction here and all I'm looking for is 2-3% lol!! 



#44 12SPX

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 07:49 AM

Hmmmmm getting fun, profit stop 5265, sell above for cash....



#45 12SPX

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 08:03 AM

Taking profits on my ES trade for 40 points will resell after the cash open....



#46 redfoliage2

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 08:44 AM

 

 

Fresh PMI data released today continuously support the soft landing outlook for the US economy and so the current bull market till it's not..............................

Lots of data on jobs and unemployment will be released this week and the market is concerned that those data may be too strong.  But let's wait and see .......................... 

 

Likely more weakness tomorrow as the market is concerned on strong job data out tomorrow morning.  The 10Y yield up more than 3% today and now above 4.3........................

 

The market is going down today as I warned from yesterday.  Now let's see how strong the JOLTs job data will be ................................


Edited by redfoliage2, 02 April 2024 - 08:53 AM.


#47 12SPX

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 08:45 AM

Trying a long build for now at a nice even 5250 lol!! 



#48 12SPX

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 09:03 AM

TRying a long on ndx at 18240 also



#49 12SPX

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 09:06 AM

profit stop 18241....



#50 redfoliage2

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Posted 02 April 2024 - 09:06 AM

 

 

 

Fresh PMI data released today continuously support the soft landing outlook for the US economy and so the current bull market till it's not..............................

Lots of data on jobs and unemployment will be released this week and the market is concerned that those data may be too strong.  But let's wait and see .......................... 

 

Likely more weakness tomorrow as the market is concerned on strong job data out tomorrow morning.  The 10Y yield up more than 3% today and now above 4.3........................

 

The market is going down today as I warned from yesterday.  Now let's see how strong the JOLTs job data will be ................................

 

The JOLTs data just out with 8.756M slightly down from previous 8.748M, indicating US economy is humming along with no recession on the horizon.  I'd expect this dip to be bought as the data is supportive for the current bull market.........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 02 April 2024 - 09:12 AM.