According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday April 23rd and a window stretching from the afternoon of Thursday the 25th through Friday April 26th.
Last week the Tuesday-Wednesday morning risk window caught the low for the week. I'm not sure what to make of the Friday risk window. If the DJIA heads down on Monday, then maybe a high of some sort, but if the DJIA lays flat or goes up, then the Friday risk window was just a garden variety dud which would be surprising given how strong that signal was.
Of course, the short term EWave count that I posted last week failed before the ink was dry, but by extending not reversing, so I guess that makes the failure a bit more palatable. In this week's effort in futility below it looks like the rally out of last Wednesday's risk window low was the start of a 2nd wave inside the big "C" wave down. For this count to be right, the DJIA will need to start heading south sharply in pretty short order. The drunk driver of this bus off a cliff might be J. Powell's at his presser on May Day where he might finally confess his money pumping sins and does the full Volker given the recent resurgence in inflation, and later that day pigs will fly.
The sentiment data from the money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed web site below would seem to support a rally of some sort in the coming days. If the DJIA heads to new highs in this rally, then pigs are still just wallowing in the mud and my Ewave count above joins countless others crumpled up in the trash can beside my desk.
Regards,
Douglas