3 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday April 23rd and a window stretching from the afternoon of Thursday the 25th through Friday April 26th.

 

Last week the Tuesday-Wednesday morning risk window caught the low for the week.  I'm not sure what to make of the Friday risk window.  If the DJIA heads down on Monday, then maybe a high of some sort, but if the DJIA lays flat or goes up, then the Friday risk window was just a garden variety dud which would be surprising given how strong that signal was.

 

 

Of course, the short term EWave count that I posted last week failed before the ink was dry, but by extending not reversing, so I guess that makes the failure a bit more palatable.  In this week's effort in futility below it looks like the rally out of last Wednesday's risk window low was the start of a 2nd wave inside the big "C" wave down.  For this count to be right, the DJIA will need to start heading south sharply in pretty short order.  The drunk driver of this bus off a cliff might be J. Powell's at his presser on May Day where he might finally confess his money pumping sins and does the full Volker given the recent resurgence in inflation, and later that day pigs will fly.    

 

 

The sentiment data from the money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed web site below would seem to support a rally of some sort in the coming days.  If the DJIA heads to new highs in this rally, then pigs are still just wallowing in the mud and my Ewave count above joins countless others crumpled up in the trash can beside my desk.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

[Douglas]

The Laundry "T" below gives me a bit more confidence in my "B" EWave count peaking in this time frame.  The fact that the peak that I show above is so close to April Fools Day does worry me just a bit cause a fool and his money is, well, you know.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 21 April 2024 - 09:58 AM.

[Douglas]

A slightly more bullish alternative count is shown below which assumes an ending diagonal is forming with the completed 3rd wave in place of the "B" that I show in my primary count above.  The count below still expects the market to head lower in pretty short order to form a "4", but not as far down as my primary count which is expecting a hard "C" wave down.  The count below is based on Trader Joe's work at the studyofcycles.blogspot.co.uk.  If the current sell off does not become very vicious in the coming months, then Joe's more bullish alternative is probably a better bet.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

I meant to post this here where the risk window stuff would make more sense to anyone reading it. 

 

The dip buyers are out in full force this afternoon, but they have forgotten the corollary to the maxim of just buy the dip which is don't buy the last dip.  The risk window on Tuesday tagged a top.  It looks to me like the Thursday afternoon to Friday risk window might just catch a rebound top built by the dip buyers if smart folks start to head for the exits early ahead of the May Day Fed presser next Wednesday.  All this is, of course, structured around my EWave count projection which is now looking for a blistering wave 3 of "C" down to start any day now.  I think that breaking the low on Wednesday April 17th might just be the key that would open Pandora's box.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas