We haven't bottomed. Month of May will be worse than April, it'll be disastrous. Black swan event ahead. It's not too late to purchase May and June index puts.
Possible catalysts:
- Inflation increases will be very evident to everyone in May, cost of goods will increase more.
- Europe will have a bond blowout and this will affect European banks.
- Middle Eastern War escalates.
- Something happens in Ukraine/Russian conflict (keep in mind than Putin's Inauguration is in first week of May
- Domestic terrorist event here, possible coordinated in several areas. (Civil unrest will be in the increase between now and 1st quarter of 2025, all due to election).
I have no idea what event or combination of events will happen but cycles indicate a low in late May/early June. There's a big cluster over a two week period that streches into June.
Speculators can play the shortside and exploit then "event." Investors need to focus on capital preservation. When t-bills all the way out to the 2-year note offers such generous yields, it makes zero sense to remain heavily invested in equities. My retirement portfolio's allocation currently stands at 17% and that's utility stocks with covered calls inplemented. I also own SLV. Remainer is cash. My taxable account is 100% cash and t-bills at the end of each day. Only thing I do is fade the opening gap each day with $SPX options and my average trade lasts less than 3 min and then my day ends.