5 replies to this topic

[andr99]

and I think we have, I have missed the bottom by one day. On the 16th I was expecting the bottom in one or two trading sessions which accounts for the 18th. It came on the 19th.

Not so bad, for one who has a long term perspective, but the real challenge in this ongoing uptrend is finding out the start of short term corrections. That is difficult. 

Edited by andr99, 24 April 2024 - 10:06 AM.

[andr99]

the problem is that in an uptrend an oversold condition of the market is normally immediately bought and the ''buy the dip'' logics works fine, but unfortunately

an overbought condition can last as long as it wants and it is almost impossible, at least for me, to find out when they start to discharge that condition. If someone

has got some better ideas than mine about how to catch tops in the very short time, I'm all ears.  

Edited by andr99, 24 April 2024 - 10:32 AM.

[cycletimer]

We haven't bottomed.    Month of May will be worse than April, it'll be disastrous.  Black swan event ahead. It's not too late to purchase May and June index puts. 

Possible catalysts:

- Inflation increases will be very evident to everyone in May, cost of goods will increase more. 

- Europe will have a bond blowout and this will affect European banks.  

- Middle Eastern War escalates.

- Something happens in Ukraine/Russian conflict (keep in mind than Putin's Inauguration is in first week of May

- Domestic terrorist event here, possible coordinated in several areas.  (Civil unrest will be in the increase between now and 1st quarter of 2025, all due to election).

 

I have no idea what event or combination of events will happen but cycles indicate a low in late May/early June.  There's a big cluster over a two week period that streches into June.  

 

Speculators can play the shortside and exploit then "event."  Investors need to focus on capital preservation.  When t-bills all the way out to the 2-year note offers such generous yields, it makes zero sense to remain heavily invested in equities.  My retirement portfolio's allocation currently stands at 17% and that's utility stocks with covered calls inplemented.  I also own SLV.  Remainer is cash.  My taxable account is 100% cash and t-bills at the end of each day.  Only thing I do is fade the opening gap each day with $SPX options and my average trade lasts less than 3 min and then my day ends. 

[andr99]

taking a short position in this market is like fighting with naked hands against a tiger. Not for me, surely. 

Edited by andr99, 26 April 2024 - 11:16 AM.

[cycletimer]

taking a short position in this market is like fighting with naked hands against a tiger. Not for me, surely. 

I am not implying being a perma bear or taking a long term short position.  I tend to take short positions in puts and etf's like SDS and exiting during big selloffs like the one this week, reinstituting short positions during these 2-3 day relief bounces.  I am currently FLAT.  I will re-enter June put options nxt week.  I also like call credit spreads which have worked quite well this week.  

[12SPX]

Awwww I hear my favorite words,; credit spreads, awwwww lol!!  Every week selling calls works even if the market is going up.  I always wait until we get big down days to sell way out of the money puts for usually 3 times premium.