13 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Not buying it.... I am getting away for our first 2024 vacation & will be back on May 29th. FLAT to small NET SHORT. Will check when time allows.

https://stockcharts....rs-to-co-6.html


https://stockcharts....-on-th-569.html

[dTraderB]

My FF is this rally has limited shelf life unless the FED is suddenly dovish.

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 0:57 PM on Thu, May 09, 2024:
NAAIM Exposure now 91. Was 59 in late
April.
https://t.co/Oew7mUB1bR

[12SPX]

Awwwww Monday and holidays, starting to miss travelling every month this past winter, maybe I should go on holiday to and come back when the market is down -50% lol!!  Just kidding, that could take awhile but is so due for some type of pullback.  The screaming bulls are out in force this morning as it is an expiration week but isn't a big quarterly one so don't expect to much action to move the market.  We are still approaching my numbers for this cycle so I would expect to see a bit more volatility this week.  Call options are insanely priced especially on options expiring this Friday.  They should be under pressure this morning but instead they are pricing in the market going up hugely this week.   Will be interesting to see how we end the day and with inflation data coming out this week could get interesting as I still have my shorts at 5200 and 18150.  

[12SPX]

Boy these options just won't let it go with 4 days left to go, very surprising.  Still holding shorts at 5200 and 18150 and starting to move into June calls for the upcoming expiration cycle.  Should start getting exciting in a few minutes!! 

[12SPX]

Very interesting reaction to number searching for the good news lol!!  Holding my short on the ES at 5200 but adding to my ndx trade bringing my average up 18223!! 

[12SPX]

Oh my there is no drop in option prices whatsoever and dailys have gotten insane following the meme stocks I guess, people are way to bullish here and the market is setting itself up for a bad fall if it doesn't start correcting a bit.

[12SPX]

And there we go positive reaction for another inline number and yoy numbers still sitting at 3.4%, way above what the Fed supposedly wants lol!!  Funny thing is monthly interest rates are moving up again.  We'll see what the cash market brings.  Added to my short a little heavier with my average now at 5232 and 18318, smooth it out after the cash open.  Holding this one for a week now almost as the market continues higher on its extreme bullish ways and options insanely over priced, maybe they've converted the meme traders over to options lol!!    

[linrom1]

Powell is just a ringer for Wall Street.

[12SPX]

Very true however from my experience even when things look impossible there is a surprise out there so you never want to get to comfortable thinking the skies will be clear forever.  We also need volatility even if we do keep going up to keep it healthy, this move has become very unhealthy.  The big picture has the economy slowing and its picking up speed so if and when the Fed does cut it'll be to late thus the reason whenever they have cut in the past the market usually goes down hard afterwards.  I also still think there is way to much exuberance and were right at my numbers for this cycle now so we'll see where we are at the close on Friday, then I'll reassess for the massive June quarterly expiration...

[12SPX]

Very interesting move in the market yesterday considering inflation was inline with forecasts and yoy data again well above 2%, so the move in stocks wasn't justified but that's okay we'll see if we hang onto to new highs or not, I can't see it with the market being so overbought, so overpriced, so over bullished lol.  Is going to be an interesting expiration tomorrow for sure and easy to add to shorts with my average now at 5250 and 18415, biggest short position of the year and I'm sure were going to see volatility kick up in the coming weeks as the slowing economy starts to rear its head.  Deere's earnings report is another company example seeing a slowing coming so these massive earnings expectations are going to start to come to reality.  For now sit back and start moving into some fat June option premiums and watch the show and see what happens.