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Monthly OpEx, PPI, CPI, and Powell - Buckle up and enjoy the ride


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#1 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 01:14 PM

This is May monthly OpEx week, likely to be volatile.  With the inflation data pending for the next two days the volatility is likely to go even higher.  Buckle up and enjoy the ride for both bulls and bears.......................... 

 


#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 02:40 PM

The late day dip got bought.  Shorts covering or just bulls pushing up to unload before PPI?  ..................


Edited by redfoliage2, 13 May 2024 - 02:47 PM.


#3 hhh

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 02:48 PM

The late day dip got bought.  Shorts covering or just bulls pushing up to unload?  ..................

If we assuming pushing up to unload, how would that be done without actual buying? I've never understood that.



#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 02:51 PM

 

The late day dip got bought.  Shorts covering or just bulls pushing up to unload?  ..................

If we assuming pushing up to unload, how would that be done without actual buying? I've never understood that.

 

Without knowing the market internals it's hard to tell  .......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 13 May 2024 - 02:53 PM.


#5 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 03:30 PM

But the index futures went down after the cash market closed, that tells it's likely a pushing up to unload shortly before the close of the cash market  ........................



#6 cycletimer

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 03:52 PM

I use a “bracket” strategy in futures moments before gov’t reports. I own no equities other than two utility stocks and SLV, so I own nothing overnight with exception of these aforementioned stocks and some call credit spreads.
Bracket strategy reader’s digest version. Five min. before a report I place stop orders to buy ES 6 pts above the current market and sell 6 pts below the current market. I do same this with NQ futures, though I use buy and sell stops of 25 points. One side gets filled and Immediately do two things: cancel the order on the other side AND immediately exit the position take. Using two ES contracts yields me anywhere between $800-1200. Within seconds, and with NQ, it’s been as low as $660. to as high as $1640. using a single contract. These figures are in 2024, trading only the CPI and the non-farm payroll. All wins, no losses. I did the exact same thing on NVDA earnings and it netted close to $3000 in less then one min.
I will try this tomorrow on PPI. PPI has usually mot been as large a market mover as CPI, however, my feeling is that tomorrow’s numbers could bring more volatility than normal.

#7 redfoliage2

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Posted 14 May 2024 - 07:35 AM

The initial dip upon PPI is likely to be bought as this PPI move is a fake move, designed to trap more bears .................................


Edited by redfoliage2, 14 May 2024 - 07:44 AM.


#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 14 May 2024 - 07:41 AM

The real move will come upon CPI tomorrow.  Bears better cover today ........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 14 May 2024 - 07:49 AM.


#9 redfoliage2

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Posted 14 May 2024 - 09:46 AM

The 10Y Treasury yield down again today sending a message on tomorrow's CPI as well...............................


Edited by redfoliage2, 14 May 2024 - 09:47 AM.


#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 14 May 2024 - 11:00 AM

BTW, my intra-day monitor for the market breadth is strong today indicating accumulation.  The Street probably already knew something about CPI out tomorrow, and that's why the market ignored the PPI data today.  So we are likely to see SPX testing 5265 or higher tomorrow if CPI out in-line with the Street consensus..........................   


Edited by redfoliage2, 14 May 2024 - 11:09 AM.