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Risk Widows for the Week of 27 May & A Very British 4th of July

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 25 May 2024 - 03:40 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days over the next week or so with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are a window from the afternoon of Tuesday May 28th thru Wednesday the 29th and another window from the afternoon of Friday May 31st thru Monday June the 3rd. 


To clarify for anyone just reading one of my risk window posts for the first time, the elevated risk is for turns up or down depending on the trend going into the risk window.  If a turn fails to occur, there is also a risk of an acceleration in the direction of the current trend as traders who have been betting on a turn seeing the same risks that I track are forced to cover their bet.  If the market does not turn or accelerate in any meaningful way, I label the signal a dud.  I arrive at my "risk windows" by adding up every risk for a turn that I am aware of for each trading day of the week on a very big EXCEL spreadsheet.  These include cycles that I learned about over the years from my own work as well as that of others, economic events, celestial events (astrology is just another type of cycle), reliable guru's turn predictions and pretty much anything else that I can find in the public domain that has correctly predicted turns in the recent past.  I then categorize the risks and form sums for each category.  I then add up the signals from each category to determine which days have the strongest signal.  The system doesn't always work, no system does, but if you go back and peruse my many, many weekly risk window posts, you'll see that the risk windows hit turns pretty danged often.  I also critique the system's performance in the following week's post as seen just below.


Last week's Wednesday thru Friday risk window in red was a bit wide, but now we see why.  It captured the turn down after the lame bounce and the entire (at least so far for the paranoid) plunge.  Not too shabby if I must say.




Now for my latest flights of fantasy Elliott Wave tea leaves reading below, I once again head into the beach and show a full count and a major turn down from this past Monday.  Again for anyone just reading one of my posts, my EWave counts have more comedic than investment value due to my persistent attempts at top calling which is akin to predicting the weather here in the UK, futile at best, just plain foolish at worst.  For example, only a few hours ago there were clear blue skies, it was bright and sunny, but as I look out my office window now, it's raining. 


The 40,000 DJIA kiss was such a nice round number that I just couldn't resist calling it the end of the B wave.  The box 5 in the final triangle is a bit short, but that fits with it being an ending wave.  The biggest argument against this count is that the NYSE AD line has not diverged in any substantial way from price.  Any new trips above 40,000, of course, would scrap my completion count below.       




The British know how to do elections, one month of suffering through campaign ads and then vote.  Last week the Prime Minister here surprised pretty much everybody and called an election for July 4th.  No faffing around for more than a year listening to these wind bags babble about things they know nothing about like in the US.  The election fight is just quick and dirty, then it's over.  By US 4th of July Independence Day fireworks we should have a new government here taking the nation into a completely new wrong direction.