89 replies to this topic

[steadyquest]

"AI BUBBLE in progress"

Are you saying to embrace this gift of the marketplace or run for the hills?  Greenspan said that a bubble can't be recognized until after it breaks - there's no way to know ahead of time that the market has mispriced an asset.  The crash that many are expecting may not occur even after another doubling of NVDA - we could just get a pause ahead of the fed printing the next rally.

[12SPX]

Filled on my ES trade starting at 5295 will build on it from there.... 5295, 18850.....

[12SPX]

Out at the bell for a 12 and 50 point profit lets see what happens overnight...

[dTraderB]

"...Unfortunately there are more negative catalysts around. Bond yields are proving to be a thorn in the side for stocks as rate-cut expectations slip toward November. Jamie Dimon reiterated his warning that valuations are too high to justify share buybacks in a speech Wednesday.

"There is one last hope for the market rally, thoughfalling inflation. Much of the recent pressure on stocks has come amid fears that inflation will remain stubborn, concerns that have been shared by several Fed officials.

[dTraderB]

WSJ: Volatility in the bond market has taken the spotlight in recent days, with rising bond yields both in the U.S. and abroad weighing on equity markets. Stock futures are lower as investors continue to question the timeline for interest-rate cuts.

On Wednesday, U.S. stock indexes dropped after bond yields climbed to their highest level in a month.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet between them have added over $1.4 trillion this month, more than the other 296 stocks that rose put together. Half of the gain was just one company, chip maker Nvidia.

Behind the rises in the biggest stocks this month and this year are two trends, which have already run a long way: artificial intelligence and higher-for-longer interest rates. Any trend can always go further, but there are challenges to both.

"...Unfortunately there are more negative catalysts around. Bond yields are proving to be a thorn in the side for stocks as rate-cut expectations slip toward November. Jamie Dimon reiterated his warning that valuations are too high to justify share buybacks in a speech Wednesday.

"There is one last hope for the market rally, thoughfalling inflation. Much of the recent pressure on stocks has come amid fears that inflation will remain stubborn, concerns that have been shared by several Fed officials.

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:
U.S. second estimate of Q1 GDP and PCE, preliminary Q1 corporate profits, weekly jobless claims, April international trade balance, April wholesale/retail inventories, April pending home sales

* Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan and New York Fed chief John Williams speak; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks; European Central Bank policymaker and Irish Central Bank chief Gabriel Makhlouf speaks; Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Adrian Orr speaks

* South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision

* NATO foreign ministers hold informal meeting in Prague

* US Treasury sells 4-week bills

* US corporate earnings: Costco, Best Buy, Dollar General, Hormel Foods, Ulta Beauty, NetApp, Cooper Companies

[dTraderB]

Big drop yesterday... near the minus 200 reversal zone
https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[12SPX]

None of my shorts were hit overnight as the market was just down so we'll see how the cash market goes but while I was getting coffee I did get the ndx at 18785 and just took profits for 20 points.  Just playing around as we wait for the cash market to open but I'm not expecting much out of the market until the big number comes out tomorrow.  As d is pointing out the market is getting short term oversold but is still overbought in the longer term.  Lets see how the cash market opens and go from there as the market seems very indecisive as bond yields aren't giving up their high yields.

[12SPX]

Trying a ndx long at 18750....

[12SPX]

out for 1 point setting my profit stop, hmmmmm