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This NFP Is Likley to Keep the Fed Remaining Hawkish


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#11 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 June 2024 - 09:34 AM

Dips got bought relentlessly today and it looks that traders are betting CPI out tomorrow likely to be good for the stock market.  I suspect the data may have been leaked out ...........................

BTW, the 10-year T-bond yield down more than 1% today in front of the pending CPI.  It's telling .....................

So CPI out as expected and the market popped up at the open also as expected. Now lets see what the Fed will say .

#12 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 June 2024 - 09:34 AM

Dips got bought relentlessly today and it looks that traders are betting CPI out tomorrow likely to be good for the stock market.  I suspect the data may have been leaked out ...........................

BTW, the 10-year T-bond yield down more than 1% today in front of the pending CPI.  It's telling .....................

So CPI out as traders had expected yesterday and the market popped up at the open also as expected. Now lets see what the Fed will say.

Edited by redfoliage2, 12 June 2024 - 09:44 AM.


#13 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 June 2024 - 09:58 AM

BTW, it's obvious that the CPI data either were leaked out or figured out by Wall Street analysts, I guess it must be the former as ES rose some 70 points from LOD to HOD yesterday by the market close.......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 12 June 2024 - 10:08 AM.


#14 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 June 2024 - 10:16 AM

BTW, it's obvious that the CPI data either were leaked out or figured out by Wall Street analysts, I guess it must be the former as ES rose some 70 points from LOD to HOD yesterday by the market close.......................

Edit

It should be "SPX rose some 50 points from LOD to HOD yesterday by the close"


Edited by redfoliage2, 12 June 2024 - 10:18 AM.


#15 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 June 2024 - 12:12 PM

Now it's all depending upon what the Fed will be saying about the economy and the inflation.  If the Fed is still remaining hawkish the market is likely to reverse down ....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 12 June 2024 - 12:13 PM.


#16 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 June 2024 - 02:04 PM

So the Fed remaining hawkish and it's DotPlot shows only one cut for the year ..............................



#17 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 June 2024 - 03:12 PM

Powell said in the conference that they are prepared to adjust policy as appropriate, i.e. they are just data dependent.  It's unknow if the Dot Plot was formulated before the CPI or it had the CPI taken into consideration.  BTW, let's see if PPI out tomorrow will point to the same direction as today's CPI  ..............................


Edited by redfoliage2, 12 June 2024 - 03:17 PM.


#18 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 June 2024 - 07:48 AM

PPI data just out showing better than expected disinflation as well.  MOM PPI down from previous 0.5% to negative 0.2% and MOM Core PPI also down from previous 0.5% to 0  ..................... 


Edited by redfoliage2, 13 June 2024 - 07:53 AM.


#19 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 June 2024 - 08:43 AM

PPI data just out showing better than expected disinflation as well.  MOM PPI down from previous 0.5% to negative 0.2% and MOM Core PPI also down from previous 0.5% to 0  ..................... 

PPI is the leading indicator for CPI, it's likely to see next CPI to remain on the disinflation track.   As the Fed is waiting for more data to be more confident on the disinflation outlook I see it will have to adjust its rate policy before long.  Dips are likely to be bought......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 13 June 2024 - 08:52 AM.


#20 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 June 2024 - 09:31 AM

However, today it looks a profit taking day as the market is ST overbought...........


Edited by redfoliage2, 13 June 2024 - 09:38 AM.